11/19/2011 College Football and Basketball Plays

After a long hiatus (hiding from the shame of the last picks) we are finally back, and this time it is with multi-sport plays. Hooray College Basketball!


CFB:
CINCINNATI (-2.5) over Rutgers
CLEMSON (-7.5) over NC State
PENN STATE (+7) over Ohio State
TENNESSEE (+2) over Vanderbilt

CBK:
LOUISVILLE (-4.5) over Butler
OLD DOMINION (+2.5) over South Florida
USC (-7.5) over Cal Poly
SAN DIEGO STATE (-2) over Long Beach State

Pick of the Day:
WASHINGTON (-2) over Oregon State (Football)

10/22/2011 College Football Plays

Another decent showing last week of 3-2, hopefully this week is the week of the road warrior in the biggest slate of picks so far:

OKLAHOMA STATE (-7) over Missouri
ILLINOIS (-3) over Purdue
WAKE FOREST (-3.5) over Duke
USC (+10) over Notre Dame
USF (-3) over Cincinnati
KENTUCKY (-10) over Jacksonville State
SMU (+3) over Southern Miss
HAWAII (-21.5) over New Mexico State

Pick of the Day:
WASHINGTON STATE (-3) over Oregon State

10/15/2011 College Football Plays

These are my incredibly hungover picks, we shall see if that helps or hinders my abilities:


PITTSBURGH (-6) over Utah
IOWA ST (+16.5) over Missouri
VIRGINIA TECH (-6) over Wake Forest
CLEMSON (-7.5) over Maryland

Pick of the Day:
BYU (+3) over Oregon State

10/8/2011 College Football Plays

Its been a rough few weeks but maybe that just means I'm due. Here are this week's picks for the college football slate today:

MARYLAND (+15.5) over Georgia Tech
VIRGINIA TECH (-7.5) over Miami (FL)
ARIZONA (-2) over Oregon State
ARIZONA STATE (-3.5) over Utah
UCLA (-3.5) over Washington State
LOUSIANA-LAFAYETTE (+6) over Troy

Pick of the Day:
TEMPLE (-9) over Ball State

Week 4 NFL Picks

Not a bad start to the weekend with a 3-2 finish yesterday, however I really need to step my game up with these NFL Picks, here they are:

DALLAS (-2) over Detroit
ST LOUIS (+2.5) over Washington
ATLANTA (-5) over Seattle
SAN DIEGO (-7) over Miami

Pick of the Day:

NEW YORK GIANTS (-1) over Arizona

10/1/2011 College Football Plays

Yay, the month of October is here.  Tomorrow will be the ultimate day of flipping between College Football, playoff baseball, and horror movie marathons.

ARMY (-7) over Tulane
CONNECTICUT (-3) over Western Michigan
NOTRE DAME (-12) over Purdue
CLEMSON (+7) over Virginia Tech

Pick of the Day:
NAVY (-3.5) over Air Force

Week 3 NFL Plays

A rough start to the day yesterday, but was able to work my way back up to the winning percentage of a coin flip and finish the day 3-3.  Now we move onto Week 3 of the NFL and some road heavy picks:

SAN FRANCISCO (+3) over Cincinnati
ATLANTA (+1.5) over Tampa Bay
CHICAGO (+4) over Green Bay
DALLAS (-4) over Washington

Pick of the Day:
NEW YORK JETS (-3) over Oakland

9/24/2011 College Football Plays

Last weekend was a rough one with an overall record of 4-6-1. Hopefully a good bounce back is in order this weekend.  Here are the picks for the day:

SAN DIEGO ST (+10.5) over Michigan
UCLA (+5) over Oregon State
UTEP (+29.5) over South Florida
TULANE (+10) over Duke
MINNESOTA (-6) over North Dakota State

Pick of the Day:
FRESNO STATE (-2.5) over Idaho

Week 2 NFL Picks

A little bit of a rough start to the weekend with a 2-3 CFB showing, but here's to hoping the NFL will bring some of the good luck back:

OAKLAND (+4) over Buffalo
JACKSONVILLE (+9) over Jets
KANSAS CITY (+9) over Detriot
BALTIMORE (-5.5) over Tennessee
HOUSTON (-3) over Miami

Pick of the Day:
DALLAS (-3) over San Francisco

9/17/2011 College Football Plays

Nice start to another sport season starting off the NFL season 4-1 Week 1. Now for back to COLLEGEEEEEE with fingers crossed to continue to stay hot:
MISSISSIPPI (-2) over Vanderbilt
BOSTON COLLEGE (-7) over Duke
MICHIGAN STATE (+5) over Notre Dame
TEXAS (+3.5) over UCLA

Pick of the day: SAN DIEGO STATE (-5) over Washington State

Week 1 NFL Plays

Not quite as spectacular of a showing as last week, but a very respectable 5-2 record for the week. Now I thought I would try my luck with the NFL. Here are my picks for Week 1 of the NFL: NEW YORK GIANTS (-3) over Washington SAN FRANCISCO (-5.5) over Seattle NEW ENGLAND (-7) over Miami OAKLAND (+3) over Denver Pick of the Day: PHILADELPHIA (-3.5) over St Louis

9/10/2011 College Football Plays

Well last week was actually pretty successful (7-1), would have loved to have gone perfect but I guess I'll take doing far better than I normally do. Now lets see if I can keep the momentum going with this week's picks: IOWA (-6.5) over Iowa State PURDUE (-1.5) over Rice FRESNO STATE (+28) over Nebraska NAVY (-10) over Western Kentucky UTAH (+9) over USC MICHIGAN (+3) over Notre Dame Pick of the Day: TENNESSEE (-4.5) over Cincinnati Also, the spreadsheet for 4 game parlay with 1 side bet is almost completed and should be up soon.

9/3/2011 College Football Plays

Well the season started off on a good note as I was unable to head into the 2nd day of heavy college football slate undefeated (albeit two of those victories by a mere point). But a win is a win I guess. Anyway here are the picks for the Saturday slate of games:

MIDDLE TENNESSEE (+17) over Purdue
CLEMSON (-16) over Troy
VIRGINIA (-8) over William and Mary
GEORGIA (+3) over Boise State

Pick of the Day:
NAVY (-8) over Delaware

Total:
College Football: 3-0
NFL: 0-0
NBA: 0-0
College Basketball: 0-0
Pick of the Day: 1-0

I should have the 4-Game Parlay with One Side bet spreadsheet up sometime tomorrow.

9/1/2011 College Football Plays

Officially back from the dead! I apologize for the long wait, the 4-Game Parlay w/ Side Bet spreadsheet should be coming out this weekend so stay tuned. In the meantime I thought I would add some of my own plays for the day and keep track of how I do for the season. Since I despise betting on baseball, these picks well mostly be reserved to football for the next few months. Anyway here are my plays for tomorrow's college football slate. UNLV (+35) over Wisconsin SYRACUSE (-6) over Wake Forest Pick of the day: TEMPLE (-6) over Villanova Total: College Football: 0-0 NFL: 0-0 NBA: 0-0 College Basketball: 0-0 Pick of the Day: 0-0

Five-Team Betting Strategies (w/ Moneyline) Spreadsheet Part 1

I apologize for the delay, but finally here it is! Same format as always, blue= changeable variables, tan= results. Also, just because of the sheer depth and length of this spreadsheet it is going to be separated into several parts. The parts are as follows:

Part 1: Parlay + All Side Bets
Part 2: 4-Game Parlay w/ Side Bet + 3-Game Parlay w/ 2-Game Parlay
Part 3: 3-Game Parlay w/ 2 Side Bets
Part 4: 2-Game Parlays w/ Side Bet

Also I wanted to mention that once the College Football season starts there will be a pick section and possibly an analysis of the success rate of accuscore or other pick sites. So without further adu here is the spreadsheet:



Click Here to Be Taken to Actual Spreadsheet

Four-Team Betting Strategies w/ Moneyline Embedded

Hey everyone, sorry for the delay but here is the embedded and google docs version of the Four-Team Betting Strategies w/ Moneyline. As always, feel free to play around with it as that is what it's there for. Five-Team Betting Strategies w/ Moneyline is almost completed and should be posted within the next couple of days, so stay tuned.

Anyway, here is the Four-Team Betting Strategies w/ Moneyline:


Click Here for Actual Spreadsheet

Three-Team Betting Strategies w/ Moneyline Embedded

Just a quick update, I am making progress on the Five-Team Betting Strategies w/ Moneyline and Part 1 will hopefully be posted by the end of the weekend.

Here is the embedded Three-Team Betting Strategies w/ Moneyline and the new link on google docs:



Click Here to Access the Spreadsheet

Two-Team Betting Strategies w/ Moneyline Embedded

I apologize for the long layoff but we'll be backing posting again here soon. Just a couple of updates for you.

I am currently working on the Five-Team Betting Strategies with Moneyline spreadsheet. It is quite the daunting task but I should be done with it later this week.

I am moving all of the spreadsheets from editgrid to Google Docs to hopefully make them more accessible to everyone. I will post as I move them over. Also I am not going to move the spreadsheets done before we moved to moneylines, they were too basic to really be of any practicality besides giving everyone a general idea. With this switching I am actually hoping that through some experimentation I will be able to embed the spreadsheets here on the blog to allow people to just play around with them here.

So without further ado he is my attempt to embed the Two-Team Betting Strategies w/ Moneyline here on the blog, if it works I'll get on embedding the other ones as well:



Click Here to be Taken to the Spreadsheet

Four Team Betting Strategies W/ Moneyline

The spreadsheet for Four Team Betting Strategies w/ Moneyline is now uploaded and can be found here:

http://www.editgrid.com/user/mattz1212/Four-Team_Betting_Strategies_%28w%3A_Moneyline%29

Once again it is too long to put the results into this post so I suggest that you play around with it to see the results you can come up with. However, I will post a couple of interesting conclusions at the end of this post. Also, the length of this spreadsheet was so long that you'll notice I've put it into multiple tabs. The tabs are divided by the type of betting strategy (i.e. 3-Game w/ 1 Side Bet) and each of the possible avenues you could take in each betting strategy. As always the cells you can manipulate are in blue and the results are in tan and feel free to comment with your email if you don't want to register on that site and I'll send you a copy of the spreadsheet.

Now for the conclusions. We noted before that in terms of vs. true odds a 4-game parlay is the least advantage parlay. I mentioned before that there is over a 20% markup on the true odds vs. the fixed payout system of 10:1. Well an interesting little tidbit that may help you shave roughly 3.5 points off you parlay lies here. Normally a team of -3.5 will go for roughly -170 for the straight win. In the true odds payout system a parlay of -110,-110,-110,-170 actually pays out HIGHER than the fixed odds system of straight -110s. The amount is very slight ($1005 vs. $1000 on a $100 bet), but you are tipping the odds quite a bit in your favor. If you are winning at the same clip to break even on the 4-game fixed odds system (54.91%), here are the some of the moneylines that break even on the same winning percentage:

3 Against the Spread, 1 Moneyline: -110, -110, -110, -172
2 Against the Spread, 2 Moneyline: -110, -110, -135,-136
1 Against the Spread, 3 Moneyline: -110, -126,-126,-126
All moneyline: -121,-122,-122,-122

So if you are going to do a 4-game parlay, try to throw in at least one moneyline so you are working with the true odds system and not the fixed odds system which works horribly against you.

Next up will be the Five Team Betting Strategies with moneylines which should go very, very in depth.

Three Team Betting Strategies w/ Moneyline

The Three Team Betting Strategies w/ Moneyline spreadsheet is officially up and it can be found here:

http://www.editgrid.com/user/mattz1212/Three-Team_Betting_Strategies_Moneyline

You'll note that this spreadsheet is far more in depth than any other one done to this point. That is because the possible outcomes are now separated. Now you can add different amounts in for each of the parlays or side bets. In addition we've separate out the 2-game parlay w/ one side bet to include each option (1+2 in parlay and 3 side bet or 1+3 in parlay and 2 side bet etc) rather than clump them all together. This gives you an accurate result based on the different moneylines, winning percentages, and bet amounts for each team. As always, blue cells can be manipulated by you and tan cells are the results.

Because the possibilities are infinitely growing with the more in depth I go on each spreadsheet it is becoming more and more difficult to analyze the results in this post. Therefore, I suggest you play around with the spreadsheet to look at the results.

The one observation I will make it comparing the true odds to the fixed odds on a 3-game parlay with all -110 lines. This is the only parlaying strategy where the fixed odds are above the true odds. A -109, -110, -110 parlay would actually pay out less than a 3-game fixed parlay. However, the difference is very small and probably due to the ease of rounding so it is hardly worth note. While most other parlays work deeply against your favor this parlay actually works very very slightly in your favor.

Next up I'll post the Four Team Betting Strategies with Moneylines and get even more in depth.

Two-Team Betting Strategies (with Moneylines)

This is the first post that involves more in depth spreadsheets where we can relaxing some assumptions. In this new spreadsheet you can alter betting amounts and moneylines.

Now, most places use what is called a "true odds" parlay calculation to calculate parlays that don't fall into the fixed system because of varying moneylines. What are true odds? In true odds they set the break evens to one another. So the breakeven point on a parlay and two side bets with the same moneylines will be exactly the same (52.38% they are set to the individual bet breakeven). Now in our calculations we found that only one parlay had a break even below individual bets, which was the 3 game parlay. Which means it is actually advantageous to use the fixed betting system only in that instance. You earn the same return in a two-game parlay with lines of -111 and -112 in the "true odds" system than you would with two -110 lines in the fixed system.

Here I'll post the breakevens for every 100 points in the moneyline but I suggest you play around with the spreadsheet to gain a true understanding.

Both -1000: 90.9% winning
Both -900: 90% winning
Both -800: 88.89% winning
Both -700: 87.5% winning
Both -600: 85.72% winning
Both -500: 83.33% winning
Both -400: 80% winning
Both -300: 75% winning
Both -200: 66.67% winning
Both Even: 50% winning
Both +200: 33.33% winning
Both +300: 25% winning
And I think you get the point

This format makes betting strategies very easy. If you are above the winning percentage then parlay, if not then bet individually.

You can see a mathematical pattern here. On both sides it adding in our original $100 with the moneyline.

Anyway here is the spreadsheet and feel free to play around with it, same format as always.

6-,7-, and 8-Game Breakeven Points

Now we are starting to get into the insane lottery range. Where the odds of winning are at a minimal. But nonetheless it doesn't hurt to explore.

The payout scale for each is:
Six-Game Parlay: 40:1
Seven-Game Parlay: 75:1
Eight-Game Parlay: 150:1

These payouts are starting to look really tempting but remember the odds of winning are decreasing dramatically from each scale up and fall down to roughly 0.66% for the average bettor when you get to an eight-game parlay.

After all of the calculations the results on breakevens are as follows on each of these parlays:

Six-Game Parlay: 53.85%
Seven-Game Parlay: 53.865%
Eight-Game Parlay: 53.41%

A few observations can be drawn from these results. The first is that these breakevens are lower than those of 4- and 5-game parlays. Still none of these touch the true odds breakeven of 52.38%, so they house still gains an advantage in the fixed odds. It is also interesting to note that an eight-game parlay has the lowest breakeven of all of these strategies and that six and seven-game parlays have a breakeven so close to one another. Remember however that average joe sportsbettor is losing greatly on these bets.

At 50% winning the results look as follows:

Six-Game Parlay: -$35.94
Seven-Game Parlay: -$40.63
Eight-Game Parlay: -$41.02

This is worse than any other betting strategies. If you are losing over $40 per bet then I am sure you can find better uses for that money.

Next up we'll explore 3-game betting strategies with the moneyline and I'll post a spreadsheet.

Conclusions from Everything

Based on all of the results we have gotten we can draw together a few conclusions. For the most part these conditions hold true.

1. Four-Game Parlays are the least advantageous parlays and sucker bets. They are also never advantageous to the gambler. They have the highest required break even point of any parlay. Also, we noted in the article on Four-Game Betting Strategies (When Advantageous) that you would have to maintain a winning percentage of 59.85% for a four-game parlay to ever be advantageous. And in 5-Team betting strategies they are never advantageous. In actuality for parlay to rival the break even of individual bets the odds would have to be closer to 12.28:1 payouts. That's a 22.8% increase in payouts!

There is an interesting side note to this. If the casino uses a true hard parlay calculator for moneylines other than -110, then there is a still way to cheat the system. A 4-game parlay with moneylines of -110,-110,-110, and -170 would actually hold a higher payout that using the fixed payout system.

2. Two-Game Parlays are not advantageous to the gambler. Throughout our calculations we rarely found 2-game parlays to be effective. Beyond 2-game betting strategies we found 2-game parlays to only be advantageous when coupled with a 3-game parlay in the 5-team betting strategies. To accurately rival the break-even on individual bets, 2-game parlays should actually payout at 2.64:1 rather than 2.6:1. Now this is only a 1.52% markup (which doesn't rival our 22.8% in 4-game parlays), but the point is Vegas oddsmakers are cheating you ever so slightly on each 2 game parlay you make and eventually it should add up.

3. Even when parlays are advantageous, be sure you meet the conditions listed in the first article. This system is flawed because it is purely mathematical and we are also holding several assumptions. In time, we will begin to eliminate these assumptions but some of these factors must still hold true. Perhaps the most important of which is being able to sustain parlay droughts. These results are on the basis of the long-run. You will go through periods where you are consistently holding a win percentage over the required rate but still losing money. For example in individual bets you have a 25% of making money, a 50% of at least walking away with something, and a 25% of losing you're money. In a two-game parlay you only have a 25% of walking away with money. So if you are parlaying and unless you winning percentage is astronomically high, you are going to be walking away losing everything most of the time. Being able to sustain these loses is crucial and move forward with a consistent pattern.

In the future I may add more conclusions to this post.

I am currently still working on the spreadsheet that allows for changing moneylines and wager amounts. As of right now the conclusions are accurate under any wager amounts you wish and if the moneylines are the same. I am currently working on a formula that works on varying moneylines. I may simply post what I have so far but be alerted that the result is more flawed the farther the moneylines move apart, however if the moneylines are the same then the result should be 100% accurate.

Also, in the near future I may post the break even points for 6-, 7-, and 8-game parlays.

Five Team Betting Strategies (When Advantageous) + Spreadsheet

This is will be the final article where we hold all assumptions true (at least for the time being). This means, for now, I am not going to go any higher than five team betting strategies, but rather I'll start relaxing some of the assumptions in future articles. We'll explore how required winning percentage changes when the moneyline goes up or down. We'll also relax the assumption that you have the same odds of winning each then. Then, in time, we'll explore what would happen if you had varying amounts on each team, rather than equal dispersion of funds. But for now lets get back to five-team betting strategies (when advantageous).

As always, a lower winning percentage should always bet on each game separately. In this scenario it is until 52.24% winning that you should move to another strategy. Oddly enough, this is the exact same winning percentage that we got our first transition in four team betting strategies as well. What strategy is this? It is the 3-game parlay with 2 side bets. The return on an average $100 bet look as follows at 52.24% winning:

3-Game Parlay w/ 2 Side Bets: -$0.21 (once again the same amount as the four-team)
5 Separate Bets: -$0.22
3-Game Parlay w/ 2-Game Parlay: -$0.83
2-Game Parlay w/ 3 Side Bets: -$0.84
Two 2-Game Parlays w/ 1 Side Bet: -$1.45
4-Game Parlay w/ 1 Side Bet: -$14.51
5-Game Parlay: -$18.30

Because the 3-game parlay grows at a greater rate than the 2-game parlay we can now assume that it is NEVER advantageous to do a 2-Game Parlay w/ 3 Side Bets or two 2-Game Parlays w/ 1 Side Bet (keeping all assumptions in place).

The next transition comes rather quickly at 53.07% winning. It is the 3-Game Parlay w/ 2-Game Parlay. The results look as follows at 53.07% winning (return on average $100 bet):

3-Game Parlay w/ 2-Game Parlay: $3.33
3-Game Parlay w/ 2 Side Bets: $3.32
Two 2-Game Parlays w/ 1 Side Bet: $1.39
2-Game Parlay w/ 3 Side Bets: $1.37
5 Separate Bets: $1.36
4-Game Parlay w/ 1 Side Bet: -$9.92
5-Game Parlay: -$11.60

No assumptions can be drawn from this... yet. The next transition doesn't come until 56.66% winning when the 5-Game Parlay becomes advantageous. The results look as follows at 56.66% winning:

5-Game Parlay: $22.63
3-Game Parlay w/ 2-Game Parlay: $22.63
3-Game Parlay w/ 2 Side Bets: $19.69
Two 2-Game Parlays w/ 1 Side Bet: $14.10
4-Game Parlay w/ 1 Side Bet: $12.34
2-Game Parlay w/ 3 Side Bets: $11.16
5 Separate Bets: $8.22

Since the 5-Game parlay grows at a greater rate than the 4-Game Parlay, it is NEVER advantageous to get on a 4-Game Parlay w/ 1 Side Bet. Much like I mentioned in the Four Team Betting Strategies (When Advantageous) post, this winning percentage is rather than and pretty difficult to maintain in the long run and if you are making $22.63 on your average $100 bet, you should move to Vegas immediately. Therefore it is normally unlikely that it will be advantageous to do a 5-Game Parlay with the assumptions we've laid out.

Now here is the spreadsheet that lays out the calculations above:



It is in the same format as alway, blue-shaded cells can be manipulated by you and tan cells are the results.

For the next article I am going to draw some conclusions on the work we've done so far and make some vital points about all of this that hopefully summarize and make sense of everything. After that, I'm currently working on a Two Team Spreadsheet that allows you to manipulate moneylines, varying teams winning percentages, and bet amounts. That will hopefully be out soon.

Five-Team Betting Strategies (Break Even Points)

If you thought it was complicated already, we now dive even a level deeper into five-team betting strategies. All the assumptions (reference first posting) of before still hold true. With 5 teams you can do the following:

Bet on a 5-team parlay
Bet on 5 teams individually
Bet on a 4-team parlay with one side bet
Bet on a 3-team parlay and 2-team parlay
Bet on a 3-team parlay with 2 side bets
Bet on a 2-team parlay with 3 side bets
Bet on two 2-team parlays with one side bet

Once again, we've already calculated the break even point for some of these options which include:

5-game parlay: 54.39%
5 Separate Bets: 52.38%

Now lets explore the other options:

4-Team Parlay w/ One Side Bet

Since we always assume equal confidence and dispersion of funds, we would put $80 on the parlay and $20 on the side bet. The possible results of this betting strategy include:

Win all: 80(10)+20(.91)= $818.20
Win Parlay, Lost Side Bet: 80(10)-20= $780.00
Lose Parlay, Win Side Bet: 20(.91)-80= -$61.80
Lose All: -$100

Odds of each occuring:
Win All: 1/32
Win Parlay, Lose Side Bet: 1/32
Lose Parlay, Win Side Bet: 15/32
Lose All: 15/32

On an average $100 bet you are losing $25.90.

That is quite the big loss to incur for Average Joe sports bettor.

After all of the calculations you find that you break even at roughly 54.75% winning.

3-Game Parlay w/ 2-Game Parlay

Once again, since we are assuming equal dispersion of funds among teams you would put $60 in the 3-game parlay and $40 in the 2-game parlay. The possible results include:

Win All: 60(6)+40(2.6)= $464.00
Win 3-Game, Lose 2-Game: 60(6)-40= $320.00
Win 2-Game, Lose 3-Game: 40(2.6)-60= $44.00
Lose All: -$100

Odds of each occuring:
Win All: 1/32
Win 3-Game, Lose 2-Game: 3/32
Win 2-Game, Lose 3-Game: 7/32
Lose All: 21/32

On an average $100 bet you are losing $11.50.

After all of the calculations you find that you break even at roughly 52.405% winning (a significant decrease from the prior example)

3-Game Parlay with 2 Side Bets

Now you would put $60 on the 3-game parlay and $20 on each side bet. The potential outcomes are:

Win all: 60(6)+20(.91)+20(.91)= $396.40
Win Parlay, Split Side Bets: 60(6)+20(.91)-20= $358.20
Win Parlay, Lose Side Bets: 60(6)-20-20= $320.00
Lose Parlay, Win Side Bets: 20(.91)+20(.91)-60= -$23.60
Lose Parlay, Split Side Bets: 20(.91)-60-20= -$61.80
Lose All: -$100

Odds of each occuring:
Win All: 1/32
Win Parlay, Split Side Bets: 2/32
Win Parlay, Lose Side Bets: 1/32
Lose Parlay, Win Side Bets: 7/32
Lose Parlay, Split Side Bets: 14/32
Lose Parlay, Lose Side Bets: 7/32

On an average $100 bet you find that you are losing about $9.30 per bet

After all of the calculations you find that you break even on this strategy at 52.29% winning (the lowest of all 5-game strategies)

2-Game Parlay with 3 Side Bets

Now you would put $40 on the 2-game parlay and $20 on each side bet (repetitive ain't it?). Here are the potential outcomes:

Win All: 40(2.6)+60(.91)= $158.60
Win Parlay, Win 2 Side Bets, Lose 1: 40(2.6)+40(.91)-20= $120.40
Win Parlay, Win 1 Side Bet, Lose 2: 40(2.6)+20(.91)-40= $82.20
Win Parlay, Lose Side Bets: 40(2.6)-60= $44.00
Lose Parlay, Wide Side Bets: 60(.91)-40= $14.60
Lose Parlay, Win 2 Side Bets, Lose 1: 40(.91)-60= -$23.60
Lose Parlay, Win 1 Side Bet, Lose 2: 20(.91)-80= -$61.80
Lose All: -$100

Odds of each occuring:
Win All: 1/32
Win Parlay, Win 2 Side Bets, Lose 1: 3/32
Win Parlay, Win 1 Side Bet, Lose 2: 3/32
Win Parlay, Lose Side Bets: 1/32
Lose Parlay, Win Side Bets: 3/32
Lose Parlay, Win 2 Side Bets, Lose 1: 9/32
Lose Parlay, Win 1 Side Bet, Lose 2: 9/32
Lose All: 3/32

On the average $100 you are losing $6.70.

After all of the calculations you find that you break even at roughly 52.555% winning.

Two 2-Game Parlays with One Side Bet

$40 on each parlay and $20 on the side bet. The potential outcomes are:

Win all: 80(2.6)+20(.91)= $226.20
Win Parlays, Lose Side Bet: 80(2.6)-20= $188.00
Split Parlays, Win Side Bet: 40(2.6)+20(.91)-40= $82.20
Split Parlays, Lose Side Bet: 40(2.6)-60= $44.00
Lose Parlays, Win Side Bet: 20(.91)-80= -$61.80
Lose All: -$100

Odds of each occurring:
Win all: 1/32
Win Parlays, Lose Side Bet: 1/32
Split Parlays, Win Side Bet: 6/32
Split Parlays, Lose Side Bet: 6/32
Lose Parlays, Win Side Bet: 9/32
Lose All: 9/32

On the average $100 bet you find you lose $8.90 per bet

After all of the calculations you find that you break even at 52.67% winning.

So for reference:
Break Even on 5-game Parlay: 54.39%
Break Even on 5 Separate Bets: 52.38%
Break Even on 4-game Parlay w/ 1 Side Bet: 54.75%
Break Even on 3-game parlay w/ 2-game Parlay: 52.405%
Break Even on 3-game parlay w/ 2 Side Bets: 52.29%
Break Even on 2-game parlay w/ 3 Side Bets: 52.555%
Break Even on two 2-game parlays w/ 1 Side Bet: 52.67%

In the next article I'll explore when each betting strategy is advantageous and post the spreadsheet for 5-team betting strategies.

Four-Team Betting Strategies Spreadsheet

Hey everyone, just completed the Four-Team Betting Strategies Spreadsheet and it can be found here:

http://www.editgrid.com/user/mattz1212/Four-Team_Betting_Strategies

Once again, the blue shaded cells can be modified by you to fit your needs and the tan shaded cells are the results. However, I would like to make a note. On strategies with multiple side bets or parlays, make sure you have an equal number for both. If the numbers are different then you result will be a little bit off. I'll soon create a spreadsheet that will allow you to use different totals for those numbers. Also once again if you are unable to create an account at this site feel free to leave a comment here with your email and I'll send you the powerpoint slide.

Next up, Five-Team Betting Strategies and I will include the spreadsheet in that post, so keep tuned folks.

Two-Team and Three-Team Betting Strategy Spreadsheets

Two-Team and Three-Team Betting Strategy spreadsheets have been added. These spreadsheets can be found here (you do need an account on the site to open them, but this is a very helpful tool):

Two-Team Betting Strategies:
http://www.editgrid.com/user/mattz1212/Two-Team_Betting_Strategies

Three-Team Betting Strategies:
http://www.editgrid.com/user/mattz1212/Three-Team_Betting_Strategies

For reference the blue shaded cells are variables that can be manipulated by you. You can change the winning percentage or the amount to fit your needs and see which method would fit you best. The tan shaded cells are the results. Feel free to play around with these and see what you come up with. I'll upload the Four Team Betting Strategies Spreadsheet in the near future, til then have fun with these ones.

If you are completely opposed to creating an account, I'll email you the spreadsheets, just leave a comment here with your email address.

Four Team Betting Strategies (When Advantageous)

Now that we have gotten all of the break even points down it is time to look at when each strategy is advantageous over the other. Now assumptions hold true as before, that if you are at or below 50% you should never parlay. The results of 50% accuracy are as follows:

(per $100 bet)
4 Individual Bets: -$4.50
2-game parlay with 2 side bets: -$7.25
Two 2-game parlays: -$10
3-game parlay with 1 side bet: -$10.50
4-game parlay: -$31.25

You'll note that the ones with the lower break even points (exception of the 4-game parlay) have you losing more rapidly the lower your win percentage goes.

The next most advantageous bet doesn't come until the win percentage is up to 52.24% roughly. Any guesses on which strategy it is?

Common sense would say it must be the 2-game parlay with 2-side bets since it has the next lowest loss at 50%, but in actuality it is not.

It is the two 3-game parlay with one side bet that would be your next most advantageous bets at 52.24% winning.

The breakdown looks as such at 52.24% winning (per $100 bet):
3-game parlay w/ 1 side bet: -$0.21
4 Individual bets: -$0.22
2-game parlay with 2 side bets: -$0.99
2 two-team parlays: -$1.76
4-game parlay: -$18.08

An interesting conclusion can be drawn from this. The 3-team parlay with one side bet will always grow at a more rapid rate in comparison to the 2-game parlay with 2 side bets, therefore it is NEVER advantageous to do a 2-game parlay with 2 side bets in this even scenario of equally dispersion of funds and confidence. By the game token it becomes NEVER advantageous to do 2 two-game parlays for the same reasons listed above.

Now the last question becomes and what required win percentage does the 4-game parlay become advantageous.

The answer is not until roughly 59.85% winning. Note that this is a HUGE increase and this winning percentage would be very difficult to maintain. This speaks to how unadvantageous 4-game parlays truly are. To put this into perspective...

The breakdown looks as such at 59.85% winning (on average $100 bet):
4-game parlay: $41.14
3-game parlay with one side bet: $41.13
2 Two-Team parlays: $28.95
Two-team parlay with 2 side bets: $21.63
4 Separate Bets: $14.31

If you can make $41.14 on an average $100 bet then there is no reason to ever work a job again. However 99% of sports bettors aren't going to be able to maintain this type of winning percentage in the long run, so it seems a bit ridiculous to assume 4-game parlays are ever truly worth it.

So in conclusion,
If you're winning percentage is below 52.24% bet on the 4 games individually
If you're winning percentage is between 52.24%-59.85% bet on a 3-game parlay with one side bet
If you're winning percentage is over 59.85% parlay the 4 games
NEVER bet on a 2-game parlay with 2 side bets
NEVER bet on 2 two-game parlays

In my next post I'll post an Excel Spreadsheet with all of these calculations so you guys can play around with this and kind of see these calculations for yourselves.

Four Team Betting Strategies (Break Even Points)

Now this is where things get very complicated because many more variables and options come into play. Now remember we are assuming lines of -110 and that you are equally confident in all teams and thus disperse your money equally among them. First lets list all of the options you have:

Bets on all 4 teams separately
Bet on two teams individually and 2 game parlay the other two
Bet on 2 two team parlays
Bet on one team separately and have a 3 game parlay
Or put all of the teams into a 4 game parlay

Now the question becomes, which should you do? We've already calculated the break even point for some of these options which included:

Separate bets: 52.4%
Two-game parlay: 52.7%
A 4-game parlay: 54.91%

So when do the other options break even?

2-game + 2 Separate Side Bets
Well in a two-team parlay with two separate side bets there are a couple more possibilities. Now since we are assuming equal dispersion of funds, you would have $50 in your 2-game parlay and $25 on each side bet. The possibilities include:

Winning all bets= 2.6(50)+(.91)(25)+(.91)(25)= $175.4
Win the 2-game parlay, win one side bet, lose the other= 2.6(50)+(.91)(25)-25= $127.7
Win the 2-game parlay, lose both side bets= (2.6)(50)-50= $80
Lose 2-game parlay, win both side bets= (.91)(25)(2)-50= -$4.5
Lose the 2-game parlay, lose one side bet, win one side bet= (.91)(25)-75= -$52.3
Lose all bets= -$100

Now from, that payment scale it looks pretty favorable, but in actuality it isn't. There are a lot more possibilities of loss than of winning.

Odds of winning all: 1/16
Odds of winning two-game and splitting other: 2/16
Odds of winning two-game and losing separates: 1/16
Odds of losing two-game and winning side bets: 3/16
Odds of losing two-game and splitting other: 6/16
Odds of losing all: 3/16

On an average $100 bet you are losing $7.25.

After all of the calculations you find that you break even at 52.59% roughly.

Next up is the 3-game parlay with a side bet.

3-Game Parlay + 1 Separate Side Bet
The possible outcomes of this bet include:

Winning all bets= 75(6)+25(.91)= $472.75
Winning the 3-game parlay and losing side bet= 75(6)-25= $425
Losing the 3-game parlay and winning side bet= 25(.91)-75= -$52.3
Losing all bets= -$100

The odds of each occuring:

Winning all bets= 1/16
Winning 3-game and losing side= 1/16
Losing 3-game and winning side bet= 7/16
Losing all bets= 7/16

On the average $100 bet you would be losing $10.50 per bet.

After all of the calculations you break even at 52.285% roughly.
Interestingly enough, this is the lowest break even point of all betting strategies that we have gone over.

So for reference:
Break Even on 4 separate bets: 52.38%
Break Even on 4-game parlay: 54.91%
Break Even on 2-game parlay with two separate side bets: 52.59%
Break Even on 3-game parlay with one separate side bet: 52.285%
Break Even on two 2-game parlays: 52.7%

In the next article we'll evaluate when each betting strategy becomes advantageous over the others.

Three Team Betting Strategies

Now, you would think this is where things become much more complicated because there is another option to use to bet (a 2-team parlay with a side bet on a single team), but in actuality it is just as simple as our prior example. Why? Because it is NEVER advantageous to the gambler to do a 2-game parlay and one side team bet on 3 teams that they are equally confident on. Just use this as a rule to live by in gambling, because mathematically speaking there is no reason to bet on a 2-team parlay and a one game side bet (assuming equal dispersion of funds and equal confidence).

So this only leaves two options, parlaying the 3 teams or betting on each separately. So when does one become advantageous over the other? Well reference my first article that drives a little deeper into this issue. For a little summary of everything:

Straight bet:
Win all 3: $91
Win 2, Lose 1: $27
Win 1, Lose 2: -$36
Lose all 3: -$100

Parlay:
Win: $600
Lose -$100

Times each can occur on a single bet:
Win all 3= 1
Win 2, Lose 1= 3
Win 1, Lose 2= 3
Lose all 3= 1

Times each can occur on a parlay:
Win= 1
Lose= 7

After all of the calcuations it was concluded that both bets would earn you the same amount at 52.23% where you are losing about $0.25 per bet.

It is interesting to note that 3-game parlays actually pay off better even before the break even point of both bets.

So in conclusion:
If you're winning percentage is below 52.23% then bet on each team individually
If you're winning percentage is above 52.23% then parlay the bet
Never do a 2-team parlay with a side bet of one team (you are better off either parlaying them all or betting on each separately)

Two Team Betting Strategies

This will probably be my shortest and most simple post because with two teams you really only have two options, a 2-team parlay or bet on each. Now lets assume in all of these strategies that you are equally confident in all teams, therefore you should dispense your money equally on all of them. For example, if you had 3 teams you liked equally and wanted to bet on one individually and two in a parlay then you should put $33.33 on the single team and $66.67 in the parlay. So in a two team betting strategy you should always have $50 on each team (assuming our $100 standard). Now the question becomes when do you parlay the two and when do you bet on them separately? The answer, as always, comes down to winning percentage.

From our reference in the post before, 2-game parlays have a break even point of 52.7%. Since it is a parlay if you are below the break even point then you are losing worse than if you bet individually. Therefore, if you are below 52.7% you shouldn't parlay the two.

However there is a point where the 2-game parlay does become more profitable. Now like the 3-game parlay example in my first post, there are a certain amount of outcomes that can happen. One outcome of winning both, two outcomes of splitting, and one outcome of losing both.

Straight bet:
Win both= $91
Lose both= -$100
Win one, lose one= -$4.5

Parlay:
Win= $260
Lose= -$100

Approximately 53.06% is the point where you would be making the same on both bets (about an average of $1.33 or $1.34 per bet)

So in conclusion:

If you're winning percentage is below 53.06% make the bets separately
If you're winning percentage is above 53.06% parlay (if you meet all the criteria I mentioned in the first article)

The Break Even Points

For gambling, there is a certain winning percentage needed to be profitable in the long run.

For straight bets its 11/21 which equals 52.4% (assuming a line of -110)

For a 3-game parlay a gambler would break even by winning 16.7% of the time (1/6) since the payoff is 6 to 1. In terms of individual games a gambler would have to be above a 52.275% to start making money.

So this shows that you actually break even on a 3-game parlay with a lower winning percentage than with straight bets. However, this doesn't hold true with the more games you add to the parlay.

The standard payout is as follows assuming a $100 bet:
Straight bets= -110 (win $91)
2-game parlay= +260 (win $260)
3-game parlay= +600 (win $600)
4-game parlay= +1000 (win $1000)
5-game parlay= +2000 (win $2000)

As a reference here are the break even points in terms of winning percentage on individual games on straight bets and 2-,3-,4-, and 5-game parlays.

Straight bets= 52.38%
2-game parlay= 52.7%
3-game parlay= 52.28%
4-game parlay= 54.91%
5-game parlay= 54.39%

Its an interesting note that 3-game parlays versus 2-game parlays and 4-game parlays vs. 5 game parlays. Now the question becomes, since 5-game parlays require such a high winning percentage, why bother with them? The reason is the higher you winning percentage goes beyond that benchmark, the more you win with a parlay with more teams. So really sucker bets are 2-game parlays and 4-game parlays which both require a higher winning to break even and don't pay out as well as 3-game parlays and 5-game parlays, respectively, as your winning percentage climbs.

So in conclusion avoid 2-game parlays and 4-game parlays, in terms of long term payoffs they falter when compared to 3-game and 5-game.

In the next part I'll show what would be most profitable (or less damaging) at every winning percentage.

The Parlay Myth

I know there are a lot of people out there like me who are obsessively addicted to sports betting. One of the more intriguing options on a sports bet is to do a parlay. Parlay are often viewed as the "lottery ticket" of sports betting. The get-rich-quick scheme of the gambler. However, do they actually work? Is this a good means earning that little extra side cash in the long run? The answer really comes down to simply mathematics.

Most Vegas spread odd parlays are at payouts of a -110 line (which means for every $100 you bet you have an opportunity to win approximately $91). Since spread odds are seen as 50/50, the -110 line gives the house an edge. With these same odds in mind the typical 3 game parlay card will pay out at 6/1.

For those that may be new to sports betting I'll digress a bit into what a straight odds parlay is. You place a bet on 3 teams to all win. If you lose one or push (hit the exact number on the spread) on any game you lose the full amount. However if you win all 3 the payout is significantly larger than if you were to simply bet on each team individual (in the case of this example you would be $600 for a $100 bet).

Now the question becomes: When does it become advantageous to the gambler to use a parlay rather than making 3 separate bets? The answer lies in a gambler's winning percentage in the long run (this is assuming prior betting statistics would hold for the future).

WARNING: If algebra makes your head hurt just look at the totals I came up with and assume I know what I am talking about.

Now lets assume you want to bet on 3 teams (A, B, C) and you have $100 dollars to spend. You are equally confident in them so if you bet on them separately you will equally dispense the money.

Dartboard Strategy:
First lets assume you use the dartboard strategy and pick the three games that the darts land on first. By doing so you've given yourself a 50% shot of winning each game.

.5*.5*.5= .125
This is the likelihood you will either win all of your games or lose all of your games. You will either win $91 or lose $100.

3*.125= .375
Their are three possibilities each for making 1/3 or 2/3 correct. A could win, but B and C lose. A and C could win, but B loses. And I think you get the point. If you go 1-2, you will lose roughly $37. If you go 2-1 you will win roughly $26.

(.125)(-100)+(.375)(-37)+(.375)(26)+(.125)(91)= -7.125
So on an average $100 bet you would lose $7.13 (the house advantage rears its ugly head).

Now if you chose to parlay your dartboard picks:
(.125)(600)+(.875)(-100)= -12.5
You are losing $12.50 on your average parlay.

Well gee willickers I guess I ain't too shabby at sports betting (52% WP)
Now lets say you are better than the average joe schmoe at sports betting and your winning percentage is actually at 52%. Using the same math as our prior example:

.52*.52*.52=.1406
The odds that you win all of your games

.48*.48*.48=.1106
The odds you lose all of your games

.48*.52*.52*3=.3894
The odds you win 2 and lose 1.

.48*.48*.52*3=.3594
The odds you win 1 and lose 2.

Average payout on 3 bets:
.1406(91)+(.1106)(-100)+(.3894)(26)+(.3594)(-37)= -1.4388
Still losing money at $1.44 per bet which sucks but hey, at least we have our health (maybe?). And at least our knowledge has helped close the gap.

Parlay:
(.1406)(600)+(.8594)(-100)= -1.58
Wowzers, that winning percentage really closed the gap. Now we are only losing $1.58 per parlay, however it is still advantageous to do separate betting in terms of average return.

Broesph, I am so much better at sports betting than you.
Now lets say you are quite the above average sports better. You win 54% of the games that you pick consistently. Lets go through the math again (ugh):

.54*.54*.54= .1575
Odds you win them all

.46*.46*.46= .0973
Odds you get skunked

.46*.54*.54*3= .4024
Win 2, Lose 1

.46*.46*.54*3= .3428
Win 1, Lose 2

Straight Bets:
(.1575)(91)+(.0973)(-100)+(.4024)(26)+(.3428)(-37)= 2.3813
Hey, look at you, you finally made something. You are making $2.38 per series of bets.

Parlay:
(.1575)(600)+(.8425)(-100)= 10.25
Holy raveoli, that certainly jumped up. You are now making $10.25 per parlay. It was become advantageous to you to actually bet using a parlay rather than 3 separate games

So the conclusion would be if you can consistently win at sports betting 52.2ish% of the time, 3 game parlays would actually be a good bet in the long run. Because this article is running a little long I'll create a Part II showing my calculations for that and also the winning percentages required to win a 4-and 5-game parlay (be aware the percentages climb with the more games added).

Now the task is on you to keep track of your winning percentage and use this as a general to see if parlays are advantageous.

I apologize for the algebra lesson, I'm sure we all took enough math classes in our lives but lets move onto other criteria to consider if you choose a parlay.

First of all you must be as confident in all of your picks as you have been for your past picks. If you are simply "throwing" games into a parlay than you draw your winning percentage back down towards 50% (also a note, if you are below 50% winning percentage the less advantageous parlays become. So if you are below 50% DO NOT PARLAY and I repeat DO NOT PARLAY). Finding an amount of games within a single day can be difficult to do.

Also, parlays are much more risky and you can easily lose your money a lot quicker. You need to have a good base of money to work this strategy with, you will go through parlay droughts which will lower your account a lot quicker.

All those people that tell you parlay are sucker bets are wrong if you can meet the following criteria.

1. Is your betting winning percentage above 52.3%?
2. Can you expect to maintain this in the future in the long run?
3. Can you survive parlay droughts?
4. Are you willing to assume higher risk for a higher payout? (The higher your winning percentage, the higher the average payout, and thus the less risk you are taking on)
5. Are you as confident in all of your picks as you would be betting on them separately (remember avoid "throw in" games, they only hurt you)?

If you can answer yes to all of those then you might want to consider switching to parlays, mathematically it would help you.

This is a really simplified way of looking at everything and assumes the past will hold true in the future but a friend thought it was interesting so I thought I'd share it. Its a good measure if you expect to win as much as you are today.

In part 2 I'll show my calculation for when parlays become advantageous over odds betting for 3,4, and 5 game parlays. I will also show at what winning percentage you start making money with straight betting and with parlays.

I still would not recommend doing parlays but at least now you get to see the payouts in a mathematical format.