If you thought it was complicated already, we now dive even a level deeper into five-team betting strategies. All the assumptions (reference first posting) of before still hold true. With 5 teams you can do the following:
Bet on a 5-team parlay
Bet on 5 teams individually
Bet on a 4-team parlay with one side bet
Bet on a 3-team parlay and 2-team parlay
Bet on a 3-team parlay with 2 side bets
Bet on a 2-team parlay with 3 side bets
Bet on two 2-team parlays with one side bet
Once again, we've already calculated the break even point for some of these options which include:
5-game parlay: 54.39%
5 Separate Bets: 52.38%
Now lets explore the other options:
4-Team Parlay w/ One Side Bet
Since we always assume equal confidence and dispersion of funds, we would put $80 on the parlay and $20 on the side bet. The possible results of this betting strategy include:
Win all: 80(10)+20(.91)= $818.20
Win Parlay, Lost Side Bet: 80(10)-20= $780.00
Lose Parlay, Win Side Bet: 20(.91)-80= -$61.80
Lose All: -$100
Odds of each occuring:
Win All: 1/32
Win Parlay, Lose Side Bet: 1/32
Lose Parlay, Win Side Bet: 15/32
Lose All: 15/32
On an average $100 bet you are losing $25.90.
That is quite the big loss to incur for Average Joe sports bettor.
After all of the calculations you find that you break even at roughly 54.75% winning.
3-Game Parlay w/ 2-Game Parlay
Once again, since we are assuming equal dispersion of funds among teams you would put $60 in the 3-game parlay and $40 in the 2-game parlay. The possible results include:
Win All: 60(6)+40(2.6)= $464.00
Win 3-Game, Lose 2-Game: 60(6)-40= $320.00
Win 2-Game, Lose 3-Game: 40(2.6)-60= $44.00
Lose All: -$100
Odds of each occuring:
Win All: 1/32
Win 3-Game, Lose 2-Game: 3/32
Win 2-Game, Lose 3-Game: 7/32
Lose All: 21/32
On an average $100 bet you are losing $11.50.
After all of the calculations you find that you break even at roughly 52.405% winning (a significant decrease from the prior example)
3-Game Parlay with 2 Side Bets
Now you would put $60 on the 3-game parlay and $20 on each side bet. The potential outcomes are:
Win all: 60(6)+20(.91)+20(.91)= $396.40
Win Parlay, Split Side Bets: 60(6)+20(.91)-20= $358.20
Win Parlay, Lose Side Bets: 60(6)-20-20= $320.00
Lose Parlay, Win Side Bets: 20(.91)+20(.91)-60= -$23.60
Lose Parlay, Split Side Bets: 20(.91)-60-20= -$61.80
Lose All: -$100
Odds of each occuring:
Win All: 1/32
Win Parlay, Split Side Bets: 2/32
Win Parlay, Lose Side Bets: 1/32
Lose Parlay, Win Side Bets: 7/32
Lose Parlay, Split Side Bets: 14/32
Lose Parlay, Lose Side Bets: 7/32
On an average $100 bet you find that you are losing about $9.30 per bet
After all of the calculations you find that you break even on this strategy at 52.29% winning (the lowest of all 5-game strategies)
2-Game Parlay with 3 Side Bets
Now you would put $40 on the 2-game parlay and $20 on each side bet (repetitive ain't it?). Here are the potential outcomes:
Win All: 40(2.6)+60(.91)= $158.60
Win Parlay, Win 2 Side Bets, Lose 1: 40(2.6)+40(.91)-20= $120.40
Win Parlay, Win 1 Side Bet, Lose 2: 40(2.6)+20(.91)-40= $82.20
Win Parlay, Lose Side Bets: 40(2.6)-60= $44.00
Lose Parlay, Wide Side Bets: 60(.91)-40= $14.60
Lose Parlay, Win 2 Side Bets, Lose 1: 40(.91)-60= -$23.60
Lose Parlay, Win 1 Side Bet, Lose 2: 20(.91)-80= -$61.80
Lose All: -$100
Odds of each occuring:
Win All: 1/32
Win Parlay, Win 2 Side Bets, Lose 1: 3/32
Win Parlay, Win 1 Side Bet, Lose 2: 3/32
Win Parlay, Lose Side Bets: 1/32
Lose Parlay, Win Side Bets: 3/32
Lose Parlay, Win 2 Side Bets, Lose 1: 9/32
Lose Parlay, Win 1 Side Bet, Lose 2: 9/32
Lose All: 3/32
On the average $100 you are losing $6.70.
After all of the calculations you find that you break even at roughly 52.555% winning.
Two 2-Game Parlays with One Side Bet
$40 on each parlay and $20 on the side bet. The potential outcomes are:
Win all: 80(2.6)+20(.91)= $226.20
Win Parlays, Lose Side Bet: 80(2.6)-20= $188.00
Split Parlays, Win Side Bet: 40(2.6)+20(.91)-40= $82.20
Split Parlays, Lose Side Bet: 40(2.6)-60= $44.00
Lose Parlays, Win Side Bet: 20(.91)-80= -$61.80
Lose All: -$100
Odds of each occurring:
Win all: 1/32
Win Parlays, Lose Side Bet: 1/32
Split Parlays, Win Side Bet: 6/32
Split Parlays, Lose Side Bet: 6/32
Lose Parlays, Win Side Bet: 9/32
Lose All: 9/32
On the average $100 bet you find you lose $8.90 per bet
After all of the calculations you find that you break even at 52.67% winning.
So for reference:
Break Even on 5-game Parlay: 54.39%
Break Even on 5 Separate Bets: 52.38%
Break Even on 4-game Parlay w/ 1 Side Bet: 54.75%
Break Even on 3-game parlay w/ 2-game Parlay: 52.405%
Break Even on 3-game parlay w/ 2 Side Bets: 52.29%
Break Even on 2-game parlay w/ 3 Side Bets: 52.555%
Break Even on two 2-game parlays w/ 1 Side Bet: 52.67%
In the next article I'll explore when each betting strategy is advantageous and post the spreadsheet for 5-team betting strategies.
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