6-,7-, and 8-Game Breakeven Points

Now we are starting to get into the insane lottery range. Where the odds of winning are at a minimal. But nonetheless it doesn't hurt to explore.

The payout scale for each is:
Six-Game Parlay: 40:1
Seven-Game Parlay: 75:1
Eight-Game Parlay: 150:1

These payouts are starting to look really tempting but remember the odds of winning are decreasing dramatically from each scale up and fall down to roughly 0.66% for the average bettor when you get to an eight-game parlay.

After all of the calculations the results on breakevens are as follows on each of these parlays:

Six-Game Parlay: 53.85%
Seven-Game Parlay: 53.865%
Eight-Game Parlay: 53.41%

A few observations can be drawn from these results. The first is that these breakevens are lower than those of 4- and 5-game parlays. Still none of these touch the true odds breakeven of 52.38%, so they house still gains an advantage in the fixed odds. It is also interesting to note that an eight-game parlay has the lowest breakeven of all of these strategies and that six and seven-game parlays have a breakeven so close to one another. Remember however that average joe sportsbettor is losing greatly on these bets.

At 50% winning the results look as follows:

Six-Game Parlay: -$35.94
Seven-Game Parlay: -$40.63
Eight-Game Parlay: -$41.02

This is worse than any other betting strategies. If you are losing over $40 per bet then I am sure you can find better uses for that money.

Next up we'll explore 3-game betting strategies with the moneyline and I'll post a spreadsheet.