Conclusions from Everything

Based on all of the results we have gotten we can draw together a few conclusions. For the most part these conditions hold true.

1. Four-Game Parlays are the least advantageous parlays and sucker bets. They are also never advantageous to the gambler. They have the highest required break even point of any parlay. Also, we noted in the article on Four-Game Betting Strategies (When Advantageous) that you would have to maintain a winning percentage of 59.85% for a four-game parlay to ever be advantageous. And in 5-Team betting strategies they are never advantageous. In actuality for parlay to rival the break even of individual bets the odds would have to be closer to 12.28:1 payouts. That's a 22.8% increase in payouts!

There is an interesting side note to this. If the casino uses a true hard parlay calculator for moneylines other than -110, then there is a still way to cheat the system. A 4-game parlay with moneylines of -110,-110,-110, and -170 would actually hold a higher payout that using the fixed payout system.

2. Two-Game Parlays are not advantageous to the gambler. Throughout our calculations we rarely found 2-game parlays to be effective. Beyond 2-game betting strategies we found 2-game parlays to only be advantageous when coupled with a 3-game parlay in the 5-team betting strategies. To accurately rival the break-even on individual bets, 2-game parlays should actually payout at 2.64:1 rather than 2.6:1. Now this is only a 1.52% markup (which doesn't rival our 22.8% in 4-game parlays), but the point is Vegas oddsmakers are cheating you ever so slightly on each 2 game parlay you make and eventually it should add up.

3. Even when parlays are advantageous, be sure you meet the conditions listed in the first article. This system is flawed because it is purely mathematical and we are also holding several assumptions. In time, we will begin to eliminate these assumptions but some of these factors must still hold true. Perhaps the most important of which is being able to sustain parlay droughts. These results are on the basis of the long-run. You will go through periods where you are consistently holding a win percentage over the required rate but still losing money. For example in individual bets you have a 25% of making money, a 50% of at least walking away with something, and a 25% of losing you're money. In a two-game parlay you only have a 25% of walking away with money. So if you are parlaying and unless you winning percentage is astronomically high, you are going to be walking away losing everything most of the time. Being able to sustain these loses is crucial and move forward with a consistent pattern.

In the future I may add more conclusions to this post.

I am currently still working on the spreadsheet that allows for changing moneylines and wager amounts. As of right now the conclusions are accurate under any wager amounts you wish and if the moneylines are the same. I am currently working on a formula that works on varying moneylines. I may simply post what I have so far but be alerted that the result is more flawed the farther the moneylines move apart, however if the moneylines are the same then the result should be 100% accurate.

Also, in the near future I may post the break even points for 6-, 7-, and 8-game parlays.