Five Team Betting Strategies (When Advantageous) + Spreadsheet

This is will be the final article where we hold all assumptions true (at least for the time being). This means, for now, I am not going to go any higher than five team betting strategies, but rather I'll start relaxing some of the assumptions in future articles. We'll explore how required winning percentage changes when the moneyline goes up or down. We'll also relax the assumption that you have the same odds of winning each then. Then, in time, we'll explore what would happen if you had varying amounts on each team, rather than equal dispersion of funds. But for now lets get back to five-team betting strategies (when advantageous).

As always, a lower winning percentage should always bet on each game separately. In this scenario it is until 52.24% winning that you should move to another strategy. Oddly enough, this is the exact same winning percentage that we got our first transition in four team betting strategies as well. What strategy is this? It is the 3-game parlay with 2 side bets. The return on an average $100 bet look as follows at 52.24% winning:

3-Game Parlay w/ 2 Side Bets: -$0.21 (once again the same amount as the four-team)
5 Separate Bets: -$0.22
3-Game Parlay w/ 2-Game Parlay: -$0.83
2-Game Parlay w/ 3 Side Bets: -$0.84
Two 2-Game Parlays w/ 1 Side Bet: -$1.45
4-Game Parlay w/ 1 Side Bet: -$14.51
5-Game Parlay: -$18.30

Because the 3-game parlay grows at a greater rate than the 2-game parlay we can now assume that it is NEVER advantageous to do a 2-Game Parlay w/ 3 Side Bets or two 2-Game Parlays w/ 1 Side Bet (keeping all assumptions in place).

The next transition comes rather quickly at 53.07% winning. It is the 3-Game Parlay w/ 2-Game Parlay. The results look as follows at 53.07% winning (return on average $100 bet):

3-Game Parlay w/ 2-Game Parlay: $3.33
3-Game Parlay w/ 2 Side Bets: $3.32
Two 2-Game Parlays w/ 1 Side Bet: $1.39
2-Game Parlay w/ 3 Side Bets: $1.37
5 Separate Bets: $1.36
4-Game Parlay w/ 1 Side Bet: -$9.92
5-Game Parlay: -$11.60

No assumptions can be drawn from this... yet. The next transition doesn't come until 56.66% winning when the 5-Game Parlay becomes advantageous. The results look as follows at 56.66% winning:

5-Game Parlay: $22.63
3-Game Parlay w/ 2-Game Parlay: $22.63
3-Game Parlay w/ 2 Side Bets: $19.69
Two 2-Game Parlays w/ 1 Side Bet: $14.10
4-Game Parlay w/ 1 Side Bet: $12.34
2-Game Parlay w/ 3 Side Bets: $11.16
5 Separate Bets: $8.22

Since the 5-Game parlay grows at a greater rate than the 4-Game Parlay, it is NEVER advantageous to get on a 4-Game Parlay w/ 1 Side Bet. Much like I mentioned in the Four Team Betting Strategies (When Advantageous) post, this winning percentage is rather than and pretty difficult to maintain in the long run and if you are making $22.63 on your average $100 bet, you should move to Vegas immediately. Therefore it is normally unlikely that it will be advantageous to do a 5-Game Parlay with the assumptions we've laid out.

Now here is the spreadsheet that lays out the calculations above:



It is in the same format as alway, blue-shaded cells can be manipulated by you and tan cells are the results.

For the next article I am going to draw some conclusions on the work we've done so far and make some vital points about all of this that hopefully summarize and make sense of everything. After that, I'm currently working on a Two Team Spreadsheet that allows you to manipulate moneylines, varying teams winning percentages, and bet amounts. That will hopefully be out soon.