The Break Even Points

For gambling, there is a certain winning percentage needed to be profitable in the long run.

For straight bets its 11/21 which equals 52.4% (assuming a line of -110)

For a 3-game parlay a gambler would break even by winning 16.7% of the time (1/6) since the payoff is 6 to 1. In terms of individual games a gambler would have to be above a 52.275% to start making money.

So this shows that you actually break even on a 3-game parlay with a lower winning percentage than with straight bets. However, this doesn't hold true with the more games you add to the parlay.

The standard payout is as follows assuming a $100 bet:
Straight bets= -110 (win $91)
2-game parlay= +260 (win $260)
3-game parlay= +600 (win $600)
4-game parlay= +1000 (win $1000)
5-game parlay= +2000 (win $2000)

As a reference here are the break even points in terms of winning percentage on individual games on straight bets and 2-,3-,4-, and 5-game parlays.

Straight bets= 52.38%
2-game parlay= 52.7%
3-game parlay= 52.28%
4-game parlay= 54.91%
5-game parlay= 54.39%

Its an interesting note that 3-game parlays versus 2-game parlays and 4-game parlays vs. 5 game parlays. Now the question becomes, since 5-game parlays require such a high winning percentage, why bother with them? The reason is the higher you winning percentage goes beyond that benchmark, the more you win with a parlay with more teams. So really sucker bets are 2-game parlays and 4-game parlays which both require a higher winning to break even and don't pay out as well as 3-game parlays and 5-game parlays, respectively, as your winning percentage climbs.

So in conclusion avoid 2-game parlays and 4-game parlays, in terms of long term payoffs they falter when compared to 3-game and 5-game.

In the next part I'll show what would be most profitable (or less damaging) at every winning percentage.