Now this is where things get very complicated because many more variables and options come into play. Now remember we are assuming lines of -110 and that you are equally confident in all teams and thus disperse your money equally among them. First lets list all of the options you have:
Bets on all 4 teams separately
Bet on two teams individually and 2 game parlay the other two
Bet on 2 two team parlays
Bet on one team separately and have a 3 game parlay
Or put all of the teams into a 4 game parlay
Now the question becomes, which should you do? We've already calculated the break even point for some of these options which included:
Separate bets: 52.4%
Two-game parlay: 52.7%
A 4-game parlay: 54.91%
So when do the other options break even?
2-game + 2 Separate Side Bets
Well in a two-team parlay with two separate side bets there are a couple more possibilities. Now since we are assuming equal dispersion of funds, you would have $50 in your 2-game parlay and $25 on each side bet. The possibilities include:
Winning all bets= 2.6(50)+(.91)(25)+(.91)(25)= $175.4
Win the 2-game parlay, win one side bet, lose the other= 2.6(50)+(.91)(25)-25= $127.7
Win the 2-game parlay, lose both side bets= (2.6)(50)-50= $80
Lose 2-game parlay, win both side bets= (.91)(25)(2)-50= -$4.5
Lose the 2-game parlay, lose one side bet, win one side bet= (.91)(25)-75= -$52.3
Lose all bets= -$100
Now from, that payment scale it looks pretty favorable, but in actuality it isn't. There are a lot more possibilities of loss than of winning.
Odds of winning all: 1/16
Odds of winning two-game and splitting other: 2/16
Odds of winning two-game and losing separates: 1/16
Odds of losing two-game and winning side bets: 3/16
Odds of losing two-game and splitting other: 6/16
Odds of losing all: 3/16
On an average $100 bet you are losing $7.25.
After all of the calculations you find that you break even at 52.59% roughly.
Next up is the 3-game parlay with a side bet.
3-Game Parlay + 1 Separate Side Bet
The possible outcomes of this bet include:
Winning all bets= 75(6)+25(.91)= $472.75
Winning the 3-game parlay and losing side bet= 75(6)-25= $425
Losing the 3-game parlay and winning side bet= 25(.91)-75= -$52.3
Losing all bets= -$100
The odds of each occuring:
Winning all bets= 1/16
Winning 3-game and losing side= 1/16
Losing 3-game and winning side bet= 7/16
Losing all bets= 7/16
On the average $100 bet you would be losing $10.50 per bet.
After all of the calculations you break even at 52.285% roughly.
Interestingly enough, this is the lowest break even point of all betting strategies that we have gone over.
So for reference:
Break Even on 4 separate bets: 52.38%
Break Even on 4-game parlay: 54.91%
Break Even on 2-game parlay with two separate side bets: 52.59%
Break Even on 3-game parlay with one separate side bet: 52.285%
Break Even on two 2-game parlays: 52.7%
In the next article we'll evaluate when each betting strategy becomes advantageous over the others.
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