Thursday, January 27, 2011

Four Team Betting Strategies (Break Even Points)

Now this is where things get very complicated because many more variables and options come into play. Now remember we are assuming lines of -110 and that you are equally confident in all teams and thus disperse your money equally among them. First lets list all of the options you have:

Bets on all 4 teams separately
Bet on two teams individually and 2 game parlay the other two
Bet on 2 two team parlays
Bet on one team separately and have a 3 game parlay
Or put all of the teams into a 4 game parlay

Now the question becomes, which should you do? We've already calculated the break even point for some of these options which included:

Separate bets: 52.4%
Two-game parlay: 52.7%
A 4-game parlay: 54.91%

So when do the other options break even?

2-game + 2 Separate Side Bets
Well in a two-team parlay with two separate side bets there are a couple more possibilities. Now since we are assuming equal dispersion of funds, you would have $50 in your 2-game parlay and $25 on each side bet. The possibilities include:

Winning all bets= 2.6(50)+(.91)(25)+(.91)(25)= $175.4
Win the 2-game parlay, win one side bet, lose the other= 2.6(50)+(.91)(25)-25= $127.7
Win the 2-game parlay, lose both side bets= (2.6)(50)-50= $80
Lose 2-game parlay, win both side bets= (.91)(25)(2)-50= -$4.5
Lose the 2-game parlay, lose one side bet, win one side bet= (.91)(25)-75= -$52.3
Lose all bets= -$100

Now from, that payment scale it looks pretty favorable, but in actuality it isn't. There are a lot more possibilities of loss than of winning.

Odds of winning all: 1/16
Odds of winning two-game and splitting other: 2/16
Odds of winning two-game and losing separates: 1/16
Odds of losing two-game and winning side bets: 3/16
Odds of losing two-game and splitting other: 6/16
Odds of losing all: 3/16

On an average $100 bet you are losing $7.25.

After all of the calculations you find that you break even at 52.59% roughly.

Next up is the 3-game parlay with a side bet.

3-Game Parlay + 1 Separate Side Bet
The possible outcomes of this bet include:

Winning all bets= 75(6)+25(.91)= $472.75
Winning the 3-game parlay and losing side bet= 75(6)-25= $425
Losing the 3-game parlay and winning side bet= 25(.91)-75= -$52.3
Losing all bets= -$100

The odds of each occuring:

Winning all bets= 1/16
Winning 3-game and losing side= 1/16
Losing 3-game and winning side bet= 7/16
Losing all bets= 7/16

On the average $100 bet you would be losing $10.50 per bet.

After all of the calculations you break even at 52.285% roughly.
Interestingly enough, this is the lowest break even point of all betting strategies that we have gone over.

So for reference:
Break Even on 4 separate bets: 52.38%
Break Even on 4-game parlay: 54.91%
Break Even on 2-game parlay with two separate side bets: 52.59%
Break Even on 3-game parlay with one separate side bet: 52.285%
Break Even on two 2-game parlays: 52.7%

In the next article we'll evaluate when each betting strategy becomes advantageous over the others.

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