Two-Team Betting Strategies (with Moneylines)

This is the first post that involves more in depth spreadsheets where we can relaxing some assumptions. In this new spreadsheet you can alter betting amounts and moneylines.

Now, most places use what is called a "true odds" parlay calculation to calculate parlays that don't fall into the fixed system because of varying moneylines. What are true odds? In true odds they set the break evens to one another. So the breakeven point on a parlay and two side bets with the same moneylines will be exactly the same (52.38% they are set to the individual bet breakeven). Now in our calculations we found that only one parlay had a break even below individual bets, which was the 3 game parlay. Which means it is actually advantageous to use the fixed betting system only in that instance. You earn the same return in a two-game parlay with lines of -111 and -112 in the "true odds" system than you would with two -110 lines in the fixed system.

Here I'll post the breakevens for every 100 points in the moneyline but I suggest you play around with the spreadsheet to gain a true understanding.

Both -1000: 90.9% winning
Both -900: 90% winning
Both -800: 88.89% winning
Both -700: 87.5% winning
Both -600: 85.72% winning
Both -500: 83.33% winning
Both -400: 80% winning
Both -300: 75% winning
Both -200: 66.67% winning
Both Even: 50% winning
Both +200: 33.33% winning
Both +300: 25% winning
And I think you get the point

This format makes betting strategies very easy. If you are above the winning percentage then parlay, if not then bet individually.

You can see a mathematical pattern here. On both sides it adding in our original $100 with the moneyline.

Anyway here is the spreadsheet and feel free to play around with it, same format as always.