The Three Team Betting Strategies w/ Moneyline spreadsheet is officially up and it can be found here:
http://www.editgrid.com/user/mattz1212/Three-Team_Betting_Strategies_Moneyline
You'll note that this spreadsheet is far more in depth than any other one done to this point. That is because the possible outcomes are now separated. Now you can add different amounts in for each of the parlays or side bets. In addition we've separate out the 2-game parlay w/ one side bet to include each option (1+2 in parlay and 3 side bet or 1+3 in parlay and 2 side bet etc) rather than clump them all together. This gives you an accurate result based on the different moneylines, winning percentages, and bet amounts for each team. As always, blue cells can be manipulated by you and tan cells are the results.
Because the possibilities are infinitely growing with the more in depth I go on each spreadsheet it is becoming more and more difficult to analyze the results in this post. Therefore, I suggest you play around with the spreadsheet to look at the results.
The one observation I will make it comparing the true odds to the fixed odds on a 3-game parlay with all -110 lines. This is the only parlaying strategy where the fixed odds are above the true odds. A -109, -110, -110 parlay would actually pay out less than a 3-game fixed parlay. However, the difference is very small and probably due to the ease of rounding so it is hardly worth note. While most other parlays work deeply against your favor this parlay actually works very very slightly in your favor.
Next up I'll post the Four Team Betting Strategies with Moneylines and get even more in depth.
Thursday, March 31, 2011
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
Two-Team Betting Strategies (with Moneylines)
This is the first post that involves more in depth spreadsheets where we can relaxing some assumptions. In this new spreadsheet you can alter betting amounts and moneylines.
Now, most places use what is called a "true odds" parlay calculation to calculate parlays that don't fall into the fixed system because of varying moneylines. What are true odds? In true odds they set the break evens to one another. So the breakeven point on a parlay and two side bets with the same moneylines will be exactly the same (52.38% they are set to the individual bet breakeven). Now in our calculations we found that only one parlay had a break even below individual bets, which was the 3 game parlay. Which means it is actually advantageous to use the fixed betting system only in that instance. You earn the same return in a two-game parlay with lines of -111 and -112 in the "true odds" system than you would with two -110 lines in the fixed system.
Here I'll post the breakevens for every 100 points in the moneyline but I suggest you play around with the spreadsheet to gain a true understanding.
Both -1000: 90.9% winning
Both -900: 90% winning
Both -800: 88.89% winning
Both -700: 87.5% winning
Both -600: 85.72% winning
Both -500: 83.33% winning
Both -400: 80% winning
Both -300: 75% winning
Both -200: 66.67% winning
Both Even: 50% winning
Both +200: 33.33% winning
Both +300: 25% winning
And I think you get the point
This format makes betting strategies very easy. If you are above the winning percentage then parlay, if not then bet individually.
You can see a mathematical pattern here. On both sides it adding in our original $100 with the moneyline.
Anyway here is the spreadsheet and feel free to play around with it, same format as always.
Now, most places use what is called a "true odds" parlay calculation to calculate parlays that don't fall into the fixed system because of varying moneylines. What are true odds? In true odds they set the break evens to one another. So the breakeven point on a parlay and two side bets with the same moneylines will be exactly the same (52.38% they are set to the individual bet breakeven). Now in our calculations we found that only one parlay had a break even below individual bets, which was the 3 game parlay. Which means it is actually advantageous to use the fixed betting system only in that instance. You earn the same return in a two-game parlay with lines of -111 and -112 in the "true odds" system than you would with two -110 lines in the fixed system.
Here I'll post the breakevens for every 100 points in the moneyline but I suggest you play around with the spreadsheet to gain a true understanding.
Both -1000: 90.9% winning
Both -900: 90% winning
Both -800: 88.89% winning
Both -700: 87.5% winning
Both -600: 85.72% winning
Both -500: 83.33% winning
Both -400: 80% winning
Both -300: 75% winning
Both -200: 66.67% winning
Both Even: 50% winning
Both +200: 33.33% winning
Both +300: 25% winning
And I think you get the point
This format makes betting strategies very easy. If you are above the winning percentage then parlay, if not then bet individually.
You can see a mathematical pattern here. On both sides it adding in our original $100 with the moneyline.
Anyway here is the spreadsheet and feel free to play around with it, same format as always.
6-,7-, and 8-Game Breakeven Points
Now we are starting to get into the insane lottery range. Where the odds of winning are at a minimal. But nonetheless it doesn't hurt to explore.
The payout scale for each is:
Six-Game Parlay: 40:1
Seven-Game Parlay: 75:1
Eight-Game Parlay: 150:1
These payouts are starting to look really tempting but remember the odds of winning are decreasing dramatically from each scale up and fall down to roughly 0.66% for the average bettor when you get to an eight-game parlay.
After all of the calculations the results on breakevens are as follows on each of these parlays:
Six-Game Parlay: 53.85%
Seven-Game Parlay: 53.865%
Eight-Game Parlay: 53.41%
A few observations can be drawn from these results. The first is that these breakevens are lower than those of 4- and 5-game parlays. Still none of these touch the true odds breakeven of 52.38%, so they house still gains an advantage in the fixed odds. It is also interesting to note that an eight-game parlay has the lowest breakeven of all of these strategies and that six and seven-game parlays have a breakeven so close to one another. Remember however that average joe sportsbettor is losing greatly on these bets.
At 50% winning the results look as follows:
Six-Game Parlay: -$35.94
Seven-Game Parlay: -$40.63
Eight-Game Parlay: -$41.02
This is worse than any other betting strategies. If you are losing over $40 per bet then I am sure you can find better uses for that money.
Next up we'll explore 3-game betting strategies with the moneyline and I'll post a spreadsheet.
The payout scale for each is:
Six-Game Parlay: 40:1
Seven-Game Parlay: 75:1
Eight-Game Parlay: 150:1
These payouts are starting to look really tempting but remember the odds of winning are decreasing dramatically from each scale up and fall down to roughly 0.66% for the average bettor when you get to an eight-game parlay.
After all of the calculations the results on breakevens are as follows on each of these parlays:
Six-Game Parlay: 53.85%
Seven-Game Parlay: 53.865%
Eight-Game Parlay: 53.41%
A few observations can be drawn from these results. The first is that these breakevens are lower than those of 4- and 5-game parlays. Still none of these touch the true odds breakeven of 52.38%, so they house still gains an advantage in the fixed odds. It is also interesting to note that an eight-game parlay has the lowest breakeven of all of these strategies and that six and seven-game parlays have a breakeven so close to one another. Remember however that average joe sportsbettor is losing greatly on these bets.
At 50% winning the results look as follows:
Six-Game Parlay: -$35.94
Seven-Game Parlay: -$40.63
Eight-Game Parlay: -$41.02
This is worse than any other betting strategies. If you are losing over $40 per bet then I am sure you can find better uses for that money.
Next up we'll explore 3-game betting strategies with the moneyline and I'll post a spreadsheet.
Sunday, March 13, 2011
Conclusions from Everything
Based on all of the results we have gotten we can draw together a few conclusions. For the most part these conditions hold true.
1. Four-Game Parlays are the least advantageous parlays and sucker bets. They are also never advantageous to the gambler. They have the highest required break even point of any parlay. Also, we noted in the article on Four-Game Betting Strategies (When Advantageous) that you would have to maintain a winning percentage of 59.85% for a four-game parlay to ever be advantageous. And in 5-Team betting strategies they are never advantageous. In actuality for parlay to rival the break even of individual bets the odds would have to be closer to 12.28:1 payouts. That's a 22.8% increase in payouts!
There is an interesting side note to this. If the casino uses a true hard parlay calculator for moneylines other than -110, then there is a still way to cheat the system. A 4-game parlay with moneylines of -110,-110,-110, and -170 would actually hold a higher payout that using the fixed payout system.
2. Two-Game Parlays are not advantageous to the gambler. Throughout our calculations we rarely found 2-game parlays to be effective. Beyond 2-game betting strategies we found 2-game parlays to only be advantageous when coupled with a 3-game parlay in the 5-team betting strategies. To accurately rival the break-even on individual bets, 2-game parlays should actually payout at 2.64:1 rather than 2.6:1. Now this is only a 1.52% markup (which doesn't rival our 22.8% in 4-game parlays), but the point is Vegas oddsmakers are cheating you ever so slightly on each 2 game parlay you make and eventually it should add up.
3. Even when parlays are advantageous, be sure you meet the conditions listed in the first article. This system is flawed because it is purely mathematical and we are also holding several assumptions. In time, we will begin to eliminate these assumptions but some of these factors must still hold true. Perhaps the most important of which is being able to sustain parlay droughts. These results are on the basis of the long-run. You will go through periods where you are consistently holding a win percentage over the required rate but still losing money. For example in individual bets you have a 25% of making money, a 50% of at least walking away with something, and a 25% of losing you're money. In a two-game parlay you only have a 25% of walking away with money. So if you are parlaying and unless you winning percentage is astronomically high, you are going to be walking away losing everything most of the time. Being able to sustain these loses is crucial and move forward with a consistent pattern.
In the future I may add more conclusions to this post.
I am currently still working on the spreadsheet that allows for changing moneylines and wager amounts. As of right now the conclusions are accurate under any wager amounts you wish and if the moneylines are the same. I am currently working on a formula that works on varying moneylines. I may simply post what I have so far but be alerted that the result is more flawed the farther the moneylines move apart, however if the moneylines are the same then the result should be 100% accurate.
Also, in the near future I may post the break even points for 6-, 7-, and 8-game parlays.
1. Four-Game Parlays are the least advantageous parlays and sucker bets. They are also never advantageous to the gambler. They have the highest required break even point of any parlay. Also, we noted in the article on Four-Game Betting Strategies (When Advantageous) that you would have to maintain a winning percentage of 59.85% for a four-game parlay to ever be advantageous. And in 5-Team betting strategies they are never advantageous. In actuality for parlay to rival the break even of individual bets the odds would have to be closer to 12.28:1 payouts. That's a 22.8% increase in payouts!
There is an interesting side note to this. If the casino uses a true hard parlay calculator for moneylines other than -110, then there is a still way to cheat the system. A 4-game parlay with moneylines of -110,-110,-110, and -170 would actually hold a higher payout that using the fixed payout system.
2. Two-Game Parlays are not advantageous to the gambler. Throughout our calculations we rarely found 2-game parlays to be effective. Beyond 2-game betting strategies we found 2-game parlays to only be advantageous when coupled with a 3-game parlay in the 5-team betting strategies. To accurately rival the break-even on individual bets, 2-game parlays should actually payout at 2.64:1 rather than 2.6:1. Now this is only a 1.52% markup (which doesn't rival our 22.8% in 4-game parlays), but the point is Vegas oddsmakers are cheating you ever so slightly on each 2 game parlay you make and eventually it should add up.
3. Even when parlays are advantageous, be sure you meet the conditions listed in the first article. This system is flawed because it is purely mathematical and we are also holding several assumptions. In time, we will begin to eliminate these assumptions but some of these factors must still hold true. Perhaps the most important of which is being able to sustain parlay droughts. These results are on the basis of the long-run. You will go through periods where you are consistently holding a win percentage over the required rate but still losing money. For example in individual bets you have a 25% of making money, a 50% of at least walking away with something, and a 25% of losing you're money. In a two-game parlay you only have a 25% of walking away with money. So if you are parlaying and unless you winning percentage is astronomically high, you are going to be walking away losing everything most of the time. Being able to sustain these loses is crucial and move forward with a consistent pattern.
In the future I may add more conclusions to this post.
I am currently still working on the spreadsheet that allows for changing moneylines and wager amounts. As of right now the conclusions are accurate under any wager amounts you wish and if the moneylines are the same. I am currently working on a formula that works on varying moneylines. I may simply post what I have so far but be alerted that the result is more flawed the farther the moneylines move apart, however if the moneylines are the same then the result should be 100% accurate.
Also, in the near future I may post the break even points for 6-, 7-, and 8-game parlays.
Friday, March 11, 2011
Five Team Betting Strategies (When Advantageous) + Spreadsheet
This is will be the final article where we hold all assumptions true (at least for the time being). This means, for now, I am not going to go any higher than five team betting strategies, but rather I'll start relaxing some of the assumptions in future articles. We'll explore how required winning percentage changes when the moneyline goes up or down. We'll also relax the assumption that you have the same odds of winning each then. Then, in time, we'll explore what would happen if you had varying amounts on each team, rather than equal dispersion of funds. But for now lets get back to five-team betting strategies (when advantageous).
As always, a lower winning percentage should always bet on each game separately. In this scenario it is until 52.24% winning that you should move to another strategy. Oddly enough, this is the exact same winning percentage that we got our first transition in four team betting strategies as well. What strategy is this? It is the 3-game parlay with 2 side bets. The return on an average $100 bet look as follows at 52.24% winning:
3-Game Parlay w/ 2 Side Bets: -$0.21 (once again the same amount as the four-team)
5 Separate Bets: -$0.22
3-Game Parlay w/ 2-Game Parlay: -$0.83
2-Game Parlay w/ 3 Side Bets: -$0.84
Two 2-Game Parlays w/ 1 Side Bet: -$1.45
4-Game Parlay w/ 1 Side Bet: -$14.51
5-Game Parlay: -$18.30
Because the 3-game parlay grows at a greater rate than the 2-game parlay we can now assume that it is NEVER advantageous to do a 2-Game Parlay w/ 3 Side Bets or two 2-Game Parlays w/ 1 Side Bet (keeping all assumptions in place).
The next transition comes rather quickly at 53.07% winning. It is the 3-Game Parlay w/ 2-Game Parlay. The results look as follows at 53.07% winning (return on average $100 bet):
3-Game Parlay w/ 2-Game Parlay: $3.33
3-Game Parlay w/ 2 Side Bets: $3.32
Two 2-Game Parlays w/ 1 Side Bet: $1.39
2-Game Parlay w/ 3 Side Bets: $1.37
5 Separate Bets: $1.36
4-Game Parlay w/ 1 Side Bet: -$9.92
5-Game Parlay: -$11.60
No assumptions can be drawn from this... yet. The next transition doesn't come until 56.66% winning when the 5-Game Parlay becomes advantageous. The results look as follows at 56.66% winning:
5-Game Parlay: $22.63
3-Game Parlay w/ 2-Game Parlay: $22.63
3-Game Parlay w/ 2 Side Bets: $19.69
Two 2-Game Parlays w/ 1 Side Bet: $14.10
4-Game Parlay w/ 1 Side Bet: $12.34
2-Game Parlay w/ 3 Side Bets: $11.16
5 Separate Bets: $8.22
Since the 5-Game parlay grows at a greater rate than the 4-Game Parlay, it is NEVER advantageous to get on a 4-Game Parlay w/ 1 Side Bet. Much like I mentioned in the Four Team Betting Strategies (When Advantageous) post, this winning percentage is rather than and pretty difficult to maintain in the long run and if you are making $22.63 on your average $100 bet, you should move to Vegas immediately. Therefore it is normally unlikely that it will be advantageous to do a 5-Game Parlay with the assumptions we've laid out.
Now here is the spreadsheet that lays out the calculations above:
It is in the same format as alway, blue-shaded cells can be manipulated by you and tan cells are the results.
For the next article I am going to draw some conclusions on the work we've done so far and make some vital points about all of this that hopefully summarize and make sense of everything. After that, I'm currently working on a Two Team Spreadsheet that allows you to manipulate moneylines, varying teams winning percentages, and bet amounts. That will hopefully be out soon.
As always, a lower winning percentage should always bet on each game separately. In this scenario it is until 52.24% winning that you should move to another strategy. Oddly enough, this is the exact same winning percentage that we got our first transition in four team betting strategies as well. What strategy is this? It is the 3-game parlay with 2 side bets. The return on an average $100 bet look as follows at 52.24% winning:
3-Game Parlay w/ 2 Side Bets: -$0.21 (once again the same amount as the four-team)
5 Separate Bets: -$0.22
3-Game Parlay w/ 2-Game Parlay: -$0.83
2-Game Parlay w/ 3 Side Bets: -$0.84
Two 2-Game Parlays w/ 1 Side Bet: -$1.45
4-Game Parlay w/ 1 Side Bet: -$14.51
5-Game Parlay: -$18.30
Because the 3-game parlay grows at a greater rate than the 2-game parlay we can now assume that it is NEVER advantageous to do a 2-Game Parlay w/ 3 Side Bets or two 2-Game Parlays w/ 1 Side Bet (keeping all assumptions in place).
The next transition comes rather quickly at 53.07% winning. It is the 3-Game Parlay w/ 2-Game Parlay. The results look as follows at 53.07% winning (return on average $100 bet):
3-Game Parlay w/ 2-Game Parlay: $3.33
3-Game Parlay w/ 2 Side Bets: $3.32
Two 2-Game Parlays w/ 1 Side Bet: $1.39
2-Game Parlay w/ 3 Side Bets: $1.37
5 Separate Bets: $1.36
4-Game Parlay w/ 1 Side Bet: -$9.92
5-Game Parlay: -$11.60
No assumptions can be drawn from this... yet. The next transition doesn't come until 56.66% winning when the 5-Game Parlay becomes advantageous. The results look as follows at 56.66% winning:
5-Game Parlay: $22.63
3-Game Parlay w/ 2-Game Parlay: $22.63
3-Game Parlay w/ 2 Side Bets: $19.69
Two 2-Game Parlays w/ 1 Side Bet: $14.10
4-Game Parlay w/ 1 Side Bet: $12.34
2-Game Parlay w/ 3 Side Bets: $11.16
5 Separate Bets: $8.22
Since the 5-Game parlay grows at a greater rate than the 4-Game Parlay, it is NEVER advantageous to get on a 4-Game Parlay w/ 1 Side Bet. Much like I mentioned in the Four Team Betting Strategies (When Advantageous) post, this winning percentage is rather than and pretty difficult to maintain in the long run and if you are making $22.63 on your average $100 bet, you should move to Vegas immediately. Therefore it is normally unlikely that it will be advantageous to do a 5-Game Parlay with the assumptions we've laid out.
Now here is the spreadsheet that lays out the calculations above:
It is in the same format as alway, blue-shaded cells can be manipulated by you and tan cells are the results.
For the next article I am going to draw some conclusions on the work we've done so far and make some vital points about all of this that hopefully summarize and make sense of everything. After that, I'm currently working on a Two Team Spreadsheet that allows you to manipulate moneylines, varying teams winning percentages, and bet amounts. That will hopefully be out soon.
Tuesday, March 1, 2011
Five-Team Betting Strategies (Break Even Points)
If you thought it was complicated already, we now dive even a level deeper into five-team betting strategies. All the assumptions (reference first posting) of before still hold true. With 5 teams you can do the following:
Bet on a 5-team parlay
Bet on 5 teams individually
Bet on a 4-team parlay with one side bet
Bet on a 3-team parlay and 2-team parlay
Bet on a 3-team parlay with 2 side bets
Bet on a 2-team parlay with 3 side bets
Bet on two 2-team parlays with one side bet
Once again, we've already calculated the break even point for some of these options which include:
5-game parlay: 54.39%
5 Separate Bets: 52.38%
Now lets explore the other options:
4-Team Parlay w/ One Side Bet
Since we always assume equal confidence and dispersion of funds, we would put $80 on the parlay and $20 on the side bet. The possible results of this betting strategy include:
Win all: 80(10)+20(.91)= $818.20
Win Parlay, Lost Side Bet: 80(10)-20= $780.00
Lose Parlay, Win Side Bet: 20(.91)-80= -$61.80
Lose All: -$100
Odds of each occuring:
Win All: 1/32
Win Parlay, Lose Side Bet: 1/32
Lose Parlay, Win Side Bet: 15/32
Lose All: 15/32
On an average $100 bet you are losing $25.90.
That is quite the big loss to incur for Average Joe sports bettor.
After all of the calculations you find that you break even at roughly 54.75% winning.
3-Game Parlay w/ 2-Game Parlay
Once again, since we are assuming equal dispersion of funds among teams you would put $60 in the 3-game parlay and $40 in the 2-game parlay. The possible results include:
Win All: 60(6)+40(2.6)= $464.00
Win 3-Game, Lose 2-Game: 60(6)-40= $320.00
Win 2-Game, Lose 3-Game: 40(2.6)-60= $44.00
Lose All: -$100
Odds of each occuring:
Win All: 1/32
Win 3-Game, Lose 2-Game: 3/32
Win 2-Game, Lose 3-Game: 7/32
Lose All: 21/32
On an average $100 bet you are losing $11.50.
After all of the calculations you find that you break even at roughly 52.405% winning (a significant decrease from the prior example)
3-Game Parlay with 2 Side Bets
Now you would put $60 on the 3-game parlay and $20 on each side bet. The potential outcomes are:
Win all: 60(6)+20(.91)+20(.91)= $396.40
Win Parlay, Split Side Bets: 60(6)+20(.91)-20= $358.20
Win Parlay, Lose Side Bets: 60(6)-20-20= $320.00
Lose Parlay, Win Side Bets: 20(.91)+20(.91)-60= -$23.60
Lose Parlay, Split Side Bets: 20(.91)-60-20= -$61.80
Lose All: -$100
Odds of each occuring:
Win All: 1/32
Win Parlay, Split Side Bets: 2/32
Win Parlay, Lose Side Bets: 1/32
Lose Parlay, Win Side Bets: 7/32
Lose Parlay, Split Side Bets: 14/32
Lose Parlay, Lose Side Bets: 7/32
On an average $100 bet you find that you are losing about $9.30 per bet
After all of the calculations you find that you break even on this strategy at 52.29% winning (the lowest of all 5-game strategies)
2-Game Parlay with 3 Side Bets
Now you would put $40 on the 2-game parlay and $20 on each side bet (repetitive ain't it?). Here are the potential outcomes:
Win All: 40(2.6)+60(.91)= $158.60
Win Parlay, Win 2 Side Bets, Lose 1: 40(2.6)+40(.91)-20= $120.40
Win Parlay, Win 1 Side Bet, Lose 2: 40(2.6)+20(.91)-40= $82.20
Win Parlay, Lose Side Bets: 40(2.6)-60= $44.00
Lose Parlay, Wide Side Bets: 60(.91)-40= $14.60
Lose Parlay, Win 2 Side Bets, Lose 1: 40(.91)-60= -$23.60
Lose Parlay, Win 1 Side Bet, Lose 2: 20(.91)-80= -$61.80
Lose All: -$100
Odds of each occuring:
Win All: 1/32
Win Parlay, Win 2 Side Bets, Lose 1: 3/32
Win Parlay, Win 1 Side Bet, Lose 2: 3/32
Win Parlay, Lose Side Bets: 1/32
Lose Parlay, Win Side Bets: 3/32
Lose Parlay, Win 2 Side Bets, Lose 1: 9/32
Lose Parlay, Win 1 Side Bet, Lose 2: 9/32
Lose All: 3/32
On the average $100 you are losing $6.70.
After all of the calculations you find that you break even at roughly 52.555% winning.
Two 2-Game Parlays with One Side Bet
$40 on each parlay and $20 on the side bet. The potential outcomes are:
Win all: 80(2.6)+20(.91)= $226.20
Win Parlays, Lose Side Bet: 80(2.6)-20= $188.00
Split Parlays, Win Side Bet: 40(2.6)+20(.91)-40= $82.20
Split Parlays, Lose Side Bet: 40(2.6)-60= $44.00
Lose Parlays, Win Side Bet: 20(.91)-80= -$61.80
Lose All: -$100
Odds of each occurring:
Win all: 1/32
Win Parlays, Lose Side Bet: 1/32
Split Parlays, Win Side Bet: 6/32
Split Parlays, Lose Side Bet: 6/32
Lose Parlays, Win Side Bet: 9/32
Lose All: 9/32
On the average $100 bet you find you lose $8.90 per bet
After all of the calculations you find that you break even at 52.67% winning.
So for reference:
Break Even on 5-game Parlay: 54.39%
Break Even on 5 Separate Bets: 52.38%
Break Even on 4-game Parlay w/ 1 Side Bet: 54.75%
Break Even on 3-game parlay w/ 2-game Parlay: 52.405%
Break Even on 3-game parlay w/ 2 Side Bets: 52.29%
Break Even on 2-game parlay w/ 3 Side Bets: 52.555%
Break Even on two 2-game parlays w/ 1 Side Bet: 52.67%
In the next article I'll explore when each betting strategy is advantageous and post the spreadsheet for 5-team betting strategies.
Bet on a 5-team parlay
Bet on 5 teams individually
Bet on a 4-team parlay with one side bet
Bet on a 3-team parlay and 2-team parlay
Bet on a 3-team parlay with 2 side bets
Bet on a 2-team parlay with 3 side bets
Bet on two 2-team parlays with one side bet
Once again, we've already calculated the break even point for some of these options which include:
5-game parlay: 54.39%
5 Separate Bets: 52.38%
Now lets explore the other options:
4-Team Parlay w/ One Side Bet
Since we always assume equal confidence and dispersion of funds, we would put $80 on the parlay and $20 on the side bet. The possible results of this betting strategy include:
Win all: 80(10)+20(.91)= $818.20
Win Parlay, Lost Side Bet: 80(10)-20= $780.00
Lose Parlay, Win Side Bet: 20(.91)-80= -$61.80
Lose All: -$100
Odds of each occuring:
Win All: 1/32
Win Parlay, Lose Side Bet: 1/32
Lose Parlay, Win Side Bet: 15/32
Lose All: 15/32
On an average $100 bet you are losing $25.90.
That is quite the big loss to incur for Average Joe sports bettor.
After all of the calculations you find that you break even at roughly 54.75% winning.
3-Game Parlay w/ 2-Game Parlay
Once again, since we are assuming equal dispersion of funds among teams you would put $60 in the 3-game parlay and $40 in the 2-game parlay. The possible results include:
Win All: 60(6)+40(2.6)= $464.00
Win 3-Game, Lose 2-Game: 60(6)-40= $320.00
Win 2-Game, Lose 3-Game: 40(2.6)-60= $44.00
Lose All: -$100
Odds of each occuring:
Win All: 1/32
Win 3-Game, Lose 2-Game: 3/32
Win 2-Game, Lose 3-Game: 7/32
Lose All: 21/32
On an average $100 bet you are losing $11.50.
After all of the calculations you find that you break even at roughly 52.405% winning (a significant decrease from the prior example)
3-Game Parlay with 2 Side Bets
Now you would put $60 on the 3-game parlay and $20 on each side bet. The potential outcomes are:
Win all: 60(6)+20(.91)+20(.91)= $396.40
Win Parlay, Split Side Bets: 60(6)+20(.91)-20= $358.20
Win Parlay, Lose Side Bets: 60(6)-20-20= $320.00
Lose Parlay, Win Side Bets: 20(.91)+20(.91)-60= -$23.60
Lose Parlay, Split Side Bets: 20(.91)-60-20= -$61.80
Lose All: -$100
Odds of each occuring:
Win All: 1/32
Win Parlay, Split Side Bets: 2/32
Win Parlay, Lose Side Bets: 1/32
Lose Parlay, Win Side Bets: 7/32
Lose Parlay, Split Side Bets: 14/32
Lose Parlay, Lose Side Bets: 7/32
On an average $100 bet you find that you are losing about $9.30 per bet
After all of the calculations you find that you break even on this strategy at 52.29% winning (the lowest of all 5-game strategies)
2-Game Parlay with 3 Side Bets
Now you would put $40 on the 2-game parlay and $20 on each side bet (repetitive ain't it?). Here are the potential outcomes:
Win All: 40(2.6)+60(.91)= $158.60
Win Parlay, Win 2 Side Bets, Lose 1: 40(2.6)+40(.91)-20= $120.40
Win Parlay, Win 1 Side Bet, Lose 2: 40(2.6)+20(.91)-40= $82.20
Win Parlay, Lose Side Bets: 40(2.6)-60= $44.00
Lose Parlay, Wide Side Bets: 60(.91)-40= $14.60
Lose Parlay, Win 2 Side Bets, Lose 1: 40(.91)-60= -$23.60
Lose Parlay, Win 1 Side Bet, Lose 2: 20(.91)-80= -$61.80
Lose All: -$100
Odds of each occuring:
Win All: 1/32
Win Parlay, Win 2 Side Bets, Lose 1: 3/32
Win Parlay, Win 1 Side Bet, Lose 2: 3/32
Win Parlay, Lose Side Bets: 1/32
Lose Parlay, Win Side Bets: 3/32
Lose Parlay, Win 2 Side Bets, Lose 1: 9/32
Lose Parlay, Win 1 Side Bet, Lose 2: 9/32
Lose All: 3/32
On the average $100 you are losing $6.70.
After all of the calculations you find that you break even at roughly 52.555% winning.
Two 2-Game Parlays with One Side Bet
$40 on each parlay and $20 on the side bet. The potential outcomes are:
Win all: 80(2.6)+20(.91)= $226.20
Win Parlays, Lose Side Bet: 80(2.6)-20= $188.00
Split Parlays, Win Side Bet: 40(2.6)+20(.91)-40= $82.20
Split Parlays, Lose Side Bet: 40(2.6)-60= $44.00
Lose Parlays, Win Side Bet: 20(.91)-80= -$61.80
Lose All: -$100
Odds of each occurring:
Win all: 1/32
Win Parlays, Lose Side Bet: 1/32
Split Parlays, Win Side Bet: 6/32
Split Parlays, Lose Side Bet: 6/32
Lose Parlays, Win Side Bet: 9/32
Lose All: 9/32
On the average $100 bet you find you lose $8.90 per bet
After all of the calculations you find that you break even at 52.67% winning.
So for reference:
Break Even on 5-game Parlay: 54.39%
Break Even on 5 Separate Bets: 52.38%
Break Even on 4-game Parlay w/ 1 Side Bet: 54.75%
Break Even on 3-game parlay w/ 2-game Parlay: 52.405%
Break Even on 3-game parlay w/ 2 Side Bets: 52.29%
Break Even on 2-game parlay w/ 3 Side Bets: 52.555%
Break Even on two 2-game parlays w/ 1 Side Bet: 52.67%
In the next article I'll explore when each betting strategy is advantageous and post the spreadsheet for 5-team betting strategies.
Four-Team Betting Strategies Spreadsheet
Hey everyone, just completed the Four-Team Betting Strategies Spreadsheet and it can be found here:
http://www.editgrid.com/user/mattz1212/Four-Team_Betting_Strategies
Once again, the blue shaded cells can be modified by you to fit your needs and the tan shaded cells are the results. However, I would like to make a note. On strategies with multiple side bets or parlays, make sure you have an equal number for both. If the numbers are different then you result will be a little bit off. I'll soon create a spreadsheet that will allow you to use different totals for those numbers. Also once again if you are unable to create an account at this site feel free to leave a comment here with your email and I'll send you the powerpoint slide.
Next up, Five-Team Betting Strategies and I will include the spreadsheet in that post, so keep tuned folks.
http://www.editgrid.com/user/mattz1212/Four-Team_Betting_Strategies
Once again, the blue shaded cells can be modified by you to fit your needs and the tan shaded cells are the results. However, I would like to make a note. On strategies with multiple side bets or parlays, make sure you have an equal number for both. If the numbers are different then you result will be a little bit off. I'll soon create a spreadsheet that will allow you to use different totals for those numbers. Also once again if you are unable to create an account at this site feel free to leave a comment here with your email and I'll send you the powerpoint slide.
Next up, Five-Team Betting Strategies and I will include the spreadsheet in that post, so keep tuned folks.
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