This is will be the final article where we hold all assumptions true (at least for the time being). This means, for now, I am not going to go any higher than five team betting strategies, but rather I'll start relaxing some of the assumptions in future articles. We'll explore how required winning percentage changes when the moneyline goes up or down. We'll also relax the assumption that you have the same odds of winning each then. Then, in time, we'll explore what would happen if you had varying amounts on each team, rather than equal dispersion of funds. But for now lets get back to five-team betting strategies (when advantageous).
As always, a lower winning percentage should always bet on each game separately. In this scenario it is until 52.24% winning that you should move to another strategy. Oddly enough, this is the exact same winning percentage that we got our first transition in four team betting strategies as well. What strategy is this? It is the 3-game parlay with 2 side bets. The return on an average $100 bet look as follows at 52.24% winning:
3-Game Parlay w/ 2 Side Bets: -$0.21 (once again the same amount as the four-team)
5 Separate Bets: -$0.22
3-Game Parlay w/ 2-Game Parlay: -$0.83
2-Game Parlay w/ 3 Side Bets: -$0.84
Two 2-Game Parlays w/ 1 Side Bet: -$1.45
4-Game Parlay w/ 1 Side Bet: -$14.51
5-Game Parlay: -$18.30
Because the 3-game parlay grows at a greater rate than the 2-game parlay we can now assume that it is NEVER advantageous to do a 2-Game Parlay w/ 3 Side Bets or two 2-Game Parlays w/ 1 Side Bet (keeping all assumptions in place).
The next transition comes rather quickly at 53.07% winning. It is the 3-Game Parlay w/ 2-Game Parlay. The results look as follows at 53.07% winning (return on average $100 bet):
3-Game Parlay w/ 2-Game Parlay: $3.33
3-Game Parlay w/ 2 Side Bets: $3.32
Two 2-Game Parlays w/ 1 Side Bet: $1.39
2-Game Parlay w/ 3 Side Bets: $1.37
5 Separate Bets: $1.36
4-Game Parlay w/ 1 Side Bet: -$9.92
5-Game Parlay: -$11.60
No assumptions can be drawn from this... yet. The next transition doesn't come until 56.66% winning when the 5-Game Parlay becomes advantageous. The results look as follows at 56.66% winning:
5-Game Parlay: $22.63
3-Game Parlay w/ 2-Game Parlay: $22.63
3-Game Parlay w/ 2 Side Bets: $19.69
Two 2-Game Parlays w/ 1 Side Bet: $14.10
4-Game Parlay w/ 1 Side Bet: $12.34
2-Game Parlay w/ 3 Side Bets: $11.16
5 Separate Bets: $8.22
Since the 5-Game parlay grows at a greater rate than the 4-Game Parlay, it is NEVER advantageous to get on a 4-Game Parlay w/ 1 Side Bet. Much like I mentioned in the Four Team Betting Strategies (When Advantageous) post, this winning percentage is rather than and pretty difficult to maintain in the long run and if you are making $22.63 on your average $100 bet, you should move to Vegas immediately. Therefore it is normally unlikely that it will be advantageous to do a 5-Game Parlay with the assumptions we've laid out.
Now here is the spreadsheet that lays out the calculations above:
It is in the same format as alway, blue-shaded cells can be manipulated by you and tan cells are the results.
For the next article I am going to draw some conclusions on the work we've done so far and make some vital points about all of this that hopefully summarize and make sense of everything. After that, I'm currently working on a Two Team Spreadsheet that allows you to manipulate moneylines, varying teams winning percentages, and bet amounts. That will hopefully be out soon.
Friday, March 11, 2011
Tuesday, March 1, 2011
Five-Team Betting Strategies (Break Even Points)
If you thought it was complicated already, we now dive even a level deeper into five-team betting strategies. All the assumptions (reference first posting) of before still hold true. With 5 teams you can do the following:
Bet on a 5-team parlay
Bet on 5 teams individually
Bet on a 4-team parlay with one side bet
Bet on a 3-team parlay and 2-team parlay
Bet on a 3-team parlay with 2 side bets
Bet on a 2-team parlay with 3 side bets
Bet on two 2-team parlays with one side bet
Once again, we've already calculated the break even point for some of these options which include:
5-game parlay: 54.39%
5 Separate Bets: 52.38%
Now lets explore the other options:
4-Team Parlay w/ One Side Bet
Since we always assume equal confidence and dispersion of funds, we would put $80 on the parlay and $20 on the side bet. The possible results of this betting strategy include:
Win all: 80(10)+20(.91)= $818.20
Win Parlay, Lost Side Bet: 80(10)-20= $780.00
Lose Parlay, Win Side Bet: 20(.91)-80= -$61.80
Lose All: -$100
Odds of each occuring:
Win All: 1/32
Win Parlay, Lose Side Bet: 1/32
Lose Parlay, Win Side Bet: 15/32
Lose All: 15/32
On an average $100 bet you are losing $25.90.
That is quite the big loss to incur for Average Joe sports bettor.
After all of the calculations you find that you break even at roughly 54.75% winning.
3-Game Parlay w/ 2-Game Parlay
Once again, since we are assuming equal dispersion of funds among teams you would put $60 in the 3-game parlay and $40 in the 2-game parlay. The possible results include:
Win All: 60(6)+40(2.6)= $464.00
Win 3-Game, Lose 2-Game: 60(6)-40= $320.00
Win 2-Game, Lose 3-Game: 40(2.6)-60= $44.00
Lose All: -$100
Odds of each occuring:
Win All: 1/32
Win 3-Game, Lose 2-Game: 3/32
Win 2-Game, Lose 3-Game: 7/32
Lose All: 21/32
On an average $100 bet you are losing $11.50.
After all of the calculations you find that you break even at roughly 52.405% winning (a significant decrease from the prior example)
3-Game Parlay with 2 Side Bets
Now you would put $60 on the 3-game parlay and $20 on each side bet. The potential outcomes are:
Win all: 60(6)+20(.91)+20(.91)= $396.40
Win Parlay, Split Side Bets: 60(6)+20(.91)-20= $358.20
Win Parlay, Lose Side Bets: 60(6)-20-20= $320.00
Lose Parlay, Win Side Bets: 20(.91)+20(.91)-60= -$23.60
Lose Parlay, Split Side Bets: 20(.91)-60-20= -$61.80
Lose All: -$100
Odds of each occuring:
Win All: 1/32
Win Parlay, Split Side Bets: 2/32
Win Parlay, Lose Side Bets: 1/32
Lose Parlay, Win Side Bets: 7/32
Lose Parlay, Split Side Bets: 14/32
Lose Parlay, Lose Side Bets: 7/32
On an average $100 bet you find that you are losing about $9.30 per bet
After all of the calculations you find that you break even on this strategy at 52.29% winning (the lowest of all 5-game strategies)
2-Game Parlay with 3 Side Bets
Now you would put $40 on the 2-game parlay and $20 on each side bet (repetitive ain't it?). Here are the potential outcomes:
Win All: 40(2.6)+60(.91)= $158.60
Win Parlay, Win 2 Side Bets, Lose 1: 40(2.6)+40(.91)-20= $120.40
Win Parlay, Win 1 Side Bet, Lose 2: 40(2.6)+20(.91)-40= $82.20
Win Parlay, Lose Side Bets: 40(2.6)-60= $44.00
Lose Parlay, Wide Side Bets: 60(.91)-40= $14.60
Lose Parlay, Win 2 Side Bets, Lose 1: 40(.91)-60= -$23.60
Lose Parlay, Win 1 Side Bet, Lose 2: 20(.91)-80= -$61.80
Lose All: -$100
Odds of each occuring:
Win All: 1/32
Win Parlay, Win 2 Side Bets, Lose 1: 3/32
Win Parlay, Win 1 Side Bet, Lose 2: 3/32
Win Parlay, Lose Side Bets: 1/32
Lose Parlay, Win Side Bets: 3/32
Lose Parlay, Win 2 Side Bets, Lose 1: 9/32
Lose Parlay, Win 1 Side Bet, Lose 2: 9/32
Lose All: 3/32
On the average $100 you are losing $6.70.
After all of the calculations you find that you break even at roughly 52.555% winning.
Two 2-Game Parlays with One Side Bet
$40 on each parlay and $20 on the side bet. The potential outcomes are:
Win all: 80(2.6)+20(.91)= $226.20
Win Parlays, Lose Side Bet: 80(2.6)-20= $188.00
Split Parlays, Win Side Bet: 40(2.6)+20(.91)-40= $82.20
Split Parlays, Lose Side Bet: 40(2.6)-60= $44.00
Lose Parlays, Win Side Bet: 20(.91)-80= -$61.80
Lose All: -$100
Odds of each occurring:
Win all: 1/32
Win Parlays, Lose Side Bet: 1/32
Split Parlays, Win Side Bet: 6/32
Split Parlays, Lose Side Bet: 6/32
Lose Parlays, Win Side Bet: 9/32
Lose All: 9/32
On the average $100 bet you find you lose $8.90 per bet
After all of the calculations you find that you break even at 52.67% winning.
So for reference:
Break Even on 5-game Parlay: 54.39%
Break Even on 5 Separate Bets: 52.38%
Break Even on 4-game Parlay w/ 1 Side Bet: 54.75%
Break Even on 3-game parlay w/ 2-game Parlay: 52.405%
Break Even on 3-game parlay w/ 2 Side Bets: 52.29%
Break Even on 2-game parlay w/ 3 Side Bets: 52.555%
Break Even on two 2-game parlays w/ 1 Side Bet: 52.67%
In the next article I'll explore when each betting strategy is advantageous and post the spreadsheet for 5-team betting strategies.
Bet on a 5-team parlay
Bet on 5 teams individually
Bet on a 4-team parlay with one side bet
Bet on a 3-team parlay and 2-team parlay
Bet on a 3-team parlay with 2 side bets
Bet on a 2-team parlay with 3 side bets
Bet on two 2-team parlays with one side bet
Once again, we've already calculated the break even point for some of these options which include:
5-game parlay: 54.39%
5 Separate Bets: 52.38%
Now lets explore the other options:
4-Team Parlay w/ One Side Bet
Since we always assume equal confidence and dispersion of funds, we would put $80 on the parlay and $20 on the side bet. The possible results of this betting strategy include:
Win all: 80(10)+20(.91)= $818.20
Win Parlay, Lost Side Bet: 80(10)-20= $780.00
Lose Parlay, Win Side Bet: 20(.91)-80= -$61.80
Lose All: -$100
Odds of each occuring:
Win All: 1/32
Win Parlay, Lose Side Bet: 1/32
Lose Parlay, Win Side Bet: 15/32
Lose All: 15/32
On an average $100 bet you are losing $25.90.
That is quite the big loss to incur for Average Joe sports bettor.
After all of the calculations you find that you break even at roughly 54.75% winning.
3-Game Parlay w/ 2-Game Parlay
Once again, since we are assuming equal dispersion of funds among teams you would put $60 in the 3-game parlay and $40 in the 2-game parlay. The possible results include:
Win All: 60(6)+40(2.6)= $464.00
Win 3-Game, Lose 2-Game: 60(6)-40= $320.00
Win 2-Game, Lose 3-Game: 40(2.6)-60= $44.00
Lose All: -$100
Odds of each occuring:
Win All: 1/32
Win 3-Game, Lose 2-Game: 3/32
Win 2-Game, Lose 3-Game: 7/32
Lose All: 21/32
On an average $100 bet you are losing $11.50.
After all of the calculations you find that you break even at roughly 52.405% winning (a significant decrease from the prior example)
3-Game Parlay with 2 Side Bets
Now you would put $60 on the 3-game parlay and $20 on each side bet. The potential outcomes are:
Win all: 60(6)+20(.91)+20(.91)= $396.40
Win Parlay, Split Side Bets: 60(6)+20(.91)-20= $358.20
Win Parlay, Lose Side Bets: 60(6)-20-20= $320.00
Lose Parlay, Win Side Bets: 20(.91)+20(.91)-60= -$23.60
Lose Parlay, Split Side Bets: 20(.91)-60-20= -$61.80
Lose All: -$100
Odds of each occuring:
Win All: 1/32
Win Parlay, Split Side Bets: 2/32
Win Parlay, Lose Side Bets: 1/32
Lose Parlay, Win Side Bets: 7/32
Lose Parlay, Split Side Bets: 14/32
Lose Parlay, Lose Side Bets: 7/32
On an average $100 bet you find that you are losing about $9.30 per bet
After all of the calculations you find that you break even on this strategy at 52.29% winning (the lowest of all 5-game strategies)
2-Game Parlay with 3 Side Bets
Now you would put $40 on the 2-game parlay and $20 on each side bet (repetitive ain't it?). Here are the potential outcomes:
Win All: 40(2.6)+60(.91)= $158.60
Win Parlay, Win 2 Side Bets, Lose 1: 40(2.6)+40(.91)-20= $120.40
Win Parlay, Win 1 Side Bet, Lose 2: 40(2.6)+20(.91)-40= $82.20
Win Parlay, Lose Side Bets: 40(2.6)-60= $44.00
Lose Parlay, Wide Side Bets: 60(.91)-40= $14.60
Lose Parlay, Win 2 Side Bets, Lose 1: 40(.91)-60= -$23.60
Lose Parlay, Win 1 Side Bet, Lose 2: 20(.91)-80= -$61.80
Lose All: -$100
Odds of each occuring:
Win All: 1/32
Win Parlay, Win 2 Side Bets, Lose 1: 3/32
Win Parlay, Win 1 Side Bet, Lose 2: 3/32
Win Parlay, Lose Side Bets: 1/32
Lose Parlay, Win Side Bets: 3/32
Lose Parlay, Win 2 Side Bets, Lose 1: 9/32
Lose Parlay, Win 1 Side Bet, Lose 2: 9/32
Lose All: 3/32
On the average $100 you are losing $6.70.
After all of the calculations you find that you break even at roughly 52.555% winning.
Two 2-Game Parlays with One Side Bet
$40 on each parlay and $20 on the side bet. The potential outcomes are:
Win all: 80(2.6)+20(.91)= $226.20
Win Parlays, Lose Side Bet: 80(2.6)-20= $188.00
Split Parlays, Win Side Bet: 40(2.6)+20(.91)-40= $82.20
Split Parlays, Lose Side Bet: 40(2.6)-60= $44.00
Lose Parlays, Win Side Bet: 20(.91)-80= -$61.80
Lose All: -$100
Odds of each occurring:
Win all: 1/32
Win Parlays, Lose Side Bet: 1/32
Split Parlays, Win Side Bet: 6/32
Split Parlays, Lose Side Bet: 6/32
Lose Parlays, Win Side Bet: 9/32
Lose All: 9/32
On the average $100 bet you find you lose $8.90 per bet
After all of the calculations you find that you break even at 52.67% winning.
So for reference:
Break Even on 5-game Parlay: 54.39%
Break Even on 5 Separate Bets: 52.38%
Break Even on 4-game Parlay w/ 1 Side Bet: 54.75%
Break Even on 3-game parlay w/ 2-game Parlay: 52.405%
Break Even on 3-game parlay w/ 2 Side Bets: 52.29%
Break Even on 2-game parlay w/ 3 Side Bets: 52.555%
Break Even on two 2-game parlays w/ 1 Side Bet: 52.67%
In the next article I'll explore when each betting strategy is advantageous and post the spreadsheet for 5-team betting strategies.
Four-Team Betting Strategies Spreadsheet
Hey everyone, just completed the Four-Team Betting Strategies Spreadsheet and it can be found here:
http://www.editgrid.com/user/mattz1212/Four-Team_Betting_Strategies
Once again, the blue shaded cells can be modified by you to fit your needs and the tan shaded cells are the results. However, I would like to make a note. On strategies with multiple side bets or parlays, make sure you have an equal number for both. If the numbers are different then you result will be a little bit off. I'll soon create a spreadsheet that will allow you to use different totals for those numbers. Also once again if you are unable to create an account at this site feel free to leave a comment here with your email and I'll send you the powerpoint slide.
Next up, Five-Team Betting Strategies and I will include the spreadsheet in that post, so keep tuned folks.
http://www.editgrid.com/user/mattz1212/Four-Team_Betting_Strategies
Once again, the blue shaded cells can be modified by you to fit your needs and the tan shaded cells are the results. However, I would like to make a note. On strategies with multiple side bets or parlays, make sure you have an equal number for both. If the numbers are different then you result will be a little bit off. I'll soon create a spreadsheet that will allow you to use different totals for those numbers. Also once again if you are unable to create an account at this site feel free to leave a comment here with your email and I'll send you the powerpoint slide.
Next up, Five-Team Betting Strategies and I will include the spreadsheet in that post, so keep tuned folks.
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