Two-Team and Three-Team Betting Strategy spreadsheets have been added. These spreadsheets can be found here (you do need an account on the site to open them, but this is a very helpful tool):
Two-Team Betting Strategies:
http://www.editgrid.com/user/mattz1212/Two-Team_Betting_Strategies
Three-Team Betting Strategies:
http://www.editgrid.com/user/mattz1212/Three-Team_Betting_Strategies
For reference the blue shaded cells are variables that can be manipulated by you. You can change the winning percentage or the amount to fit your needs and see which method would fit you best. The tan shaded cells are the results. Feel free to play around with these and see what you come up with. I'll upload the Four Team Betting Strategies Spreadsheet in the near future, til then have fun with these ones.
If you are completely opposed to creating an account, I'll email you the spreadsheets, just leave a comment here with your email address.
Thursday, February 24, 2011
Four Team Betting Strategies (When Advantageous)
Now that we have gotten all of the break even points down it is time to look at when each strategy is advantageous over the other. Now assumptions hold true as before, that if you are at or below 50% you should never parlay. The results of 50% accuracy are as follows:
(per $100 bet)
4 Individual Bets: -$4.50
2-game parlay with 2 side bets: -$7.25
Two 2-game parlays: -$10
3-game parlay with 1 side bet: -$10.50
4-game parlay: -$31.25
You'll note that the ones with the lower break even points (exception of the 4-game parlay) have you losing more rapidly the lower your win percentage goes.
The next most advantageous bet doesn't come until the win percentage is up to 52.24% roughly. Any guesses on which strategy it is?
Common sense would say it must be the 2-game parlay with 2-side bets since it has the next lowest loss at 50%, but in actuality it is not.
It is the two 3-game parlay with one side bet that would be your next most advantageous bets at 52.24% winning.
The breakdown looks as such at 52.24% winning (per $100 bet):
3-game parlay w/ 1 side bet: -$0.21
4 Individual bets: -$0.22
2-game parlay with 2 side bets: -$0.99
2 two-team parlays: -$1.76
4-game parlay: -$18.08
An interesting conclusion can be drawn from this. The 3-team parlay with one side bet will always grow at a more rapid rate in comparison to the 2-game parlay with 2 side bets, therefore it is NEVER advantageous to do a 2-game parlay with 2 side bets in this even scenario of equally dispersion of funds and confidence. By the game token it becomes NEVER advantageous to do 2 two-game parlays for the same reasons listed above.
Now the last question becomes and what required win percentage does the 4-game parlay become advantageous.
The answer is not until roughly 59.85% winning. Note that this is a HUGE increase and this winning percentage would be very difficult to maintain. This speaks to how unadvantageous 4-game parlays truly are. To put this into perspective...
The breakdown looks as such at 59.85% winning (on average $100 bet):
4-game parlay: $41.14
3-game parlay with one side bet: $41.13
2 Two-Team parlays: $28.95
Two-team parlay with 2 side bets: $21.63
4 Separate Bets: $14.31
If you can make $41.14 on an average $100 bet then there is no reason to ever work a job again. However 99% of sports bettors aren't going to be able to maintain this type of winning percentage in the long run, so it seems a bit ridiculous to assume 4-game parlays are ever truly worth it.
So in conclusion,
If you're winning percentage is below 52.24% bet on the 4 games individually
If you're winning percentage is between 52.24%-59.85% bet on a 3-game parlay with one side bet
If you're winning percentage is over 59.85% parlay the 4 games
NEVER bet on a 2-game parlay with 2 side bets
NEVER bet on 2 two-game parlays
In my next post I'll post an Excel Spreadsheet with all of these calculations so you guys can play around with this and kind of see these calculations for yourselves.
(per $100 bet)
4 Individual Bets: -$4.50
2-game parlay with 2 side bets: -$7.25
Two 2-game parlays: -$10
3-game parlay with 1 side bet: -$10.50
4-game parlay: -$31.25
You'll note that the ones with the lower break even points (exception of the 4-game parlay) have you losing more rapidly the lower your win percentage goes.
The next most advantageous bet doesn't come until the win percentage is up to 52.24% roughly. Any guesses on which strategy it is?
Common sense would say it must be the 2-game parlay with 2-side bets since it has the next lowest loss at 50%, but in actuality it is not.
It is the two 3-game parlay with one side bet that would be your next most advantageous bets at 52.24% winning.
The breakdown looks as such at 52.24% winning (per $100 bet):
3-game parlay w/ 1 side bet: -$0.21
4 Individual bets: -$0.22
2-game parlay with 2 side bets: -$0.99
2 two-team parlays: -$1.76
4-game parlay: -$18.08
An interesting conclusion can be drawn from this. The 3-team parlay with one side bet will always grow at a more rapid rate in comparison to the 2-game parlay with 2 side bets, therefore it is NEVER advantageous to do a 2-game parlay with 2 side bets in this even scenario of equally dispersion of funds and confidence. By the game token it becomes NEVER advantageous to do 2 two-game parlays for the same reasons listed above.
Now the last question becomes and what required win percentage does the 4-game parlay become advantageous.
The answer is not until roughly 59.85% winning. Note that this is a HUGE increase and this winning percentage would be very difficult to maintain. This speaks to how unadvantageous 4-game parlays truly are. To put this into perspective...
The breakdown looks as such at 59.85% winning (on average $100 bet):
4-game parlay: $41.14
3-game parlay with one side bet: $41.13
2 Two-Team parlays: $28.95
Two-team parlay with 2 side bets: $21.63
4 Separate Bets: $14.31
If you can make $41.14 on an average $100 bet then there is no reason to ever work a job again. However 99% of sports bettors aren't going to be able to maintain this type of winning percentage in the long run, so it seems a bit ridiculous to assume 4-game parlays are ever truly worth it.
So in conclusion,
If you're winning percentage is below 52.24% bet on the 4 games individually
If you're winning percentage is between 52.24%-59.85% bet on a 3-game parlay with one side bet
If you're winning percentage is over 59.85% parlay the 4 games
NEVER bet on a 2-game parlay with 2 side bets
NEVER bet on 2 two-game parlays
In my next post I'll post an Excel Spreadsheet with all of these calculations so you guys can play around with this and kind of see these calculations for yourselves.
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